The summer of 2025 marks a watershed moment in the history of modern China. President Xi Jinping, once hailed as the most unassailable Chinese leader since Mao Zedong, now stands at the center of swirling speculation, internal recalibration, and global scrutiny.
After thirteen years of unprecedented centralization, Xi's authority appears to be entering a phase of redistribution, with profound implications not only for China but for the entire world. As China's political landscape shifts beneath the surface, the stakes for Asia and the global order have never been higher.
The Arc of Xi's Power: From Consolidation to Redistribution
Xi Jinping's rise was nothing short of transformative. By 2012, he had secured the three pillars of Chinese power: General Secretary of the Communist Party, President of the People's Republic, and Chairman of the Central Military Commission. His anti-corruption campaign swept through the party, purging over a million officials and dozens of top generals, and his status as "core leader" was enshrined in party doctrine. In 2018, the removal of presidential term limits seemed to cement his rule indefinitely, earning him the moniker "president for life."
Yet, the very centralization that made Xi formidable is now being tested. The Politburo's June 2025 meeting, which reviewed sweeping changes to party institutional functions, is widely interpreted as a sign of impending transition. For the first time in over a decade, Xi has been absent from the global stage, missing the BRICS summit and ceding high-level responsibilities to Premier Li Keqiang. Rumors of ill health and internal party strife abound, while a faction loyal to former president Hu Jintao is reportedly gaining traction within key party organs.
Shifting Structures: The New Distribution of Power
The current moment is defined by a subtle but unmistakable redistribution of authority:
Party Governance: Xi's previous model of highly centralized, top-down control is giving way to a more collective approach. Key policy decisions are now being channeled through CCP commissions and leading groups, signaling a partial return to institutionalized party rule.
Military Control: The People's Liberation Army, once purged and tightly controlled by Xi, is now seeing the rise of figures like General Zhang Youxia. Backed by elements of the Hu Jintao bloc, Zhang's increasing influence suggests a more pluralistic command structure.
Policy Implementation: While Xi's strategic vision remains paramount, the day-to-day execution is being delegated to trusted deputies and party organs. The focus is shifting from grand pronouncements to the "politics of execution," ensuring that central directives are faithfully implemented at all levels.
Succession Planning: Unlike his predecessors, Xi has not groomed a clear successor. However, the resurgence of the Hu Jintao faction and the emergence of reform-oriented leaders like Wang Yang indicate that the party is preparing for a possible leadership transition ahead of the 2027 Party Congress.
Day-to-Day Management: Xi's reduced public presence and operational involvement reflect a deliberate recalibration, possibly influenced by health concerns or the need to address mounting economic and social challenges.
Economic and Social Pressures: The Context for Change
China' internal pressures are mounting. Youth unemployment has soared to 15 percent, five points higher than when Xi first took office. The property sector remains stagnant, national debt is rising, and the government's zero-COVID policy left lasting scars on industry and public trust. Even as China's clean energy sector now accounts for 10 percent of GDP and a quarter of all growth, these successes are overshadowed by systemic vulnerabilities and the urgent need for governance reform.
Global and Regional Implications: A New Phase for China and the World
Xi's recalibration of power is not occurring in a vacuum. The world is watching closely, and the implications are profound:
For China: A more collective leadership model could enhance policy adaptability and reduce the risks of over-centralization, but it may also trigger internal factionalism and uncertainty. The CCP's ability to manage this transition will determine the stability of the regime and the trajectory of China's rise.
For the World: As China's leadership recalibrates, its foreign policy may become less predictable. The United States and its allies must prepare for both opportunities and risks, including shifts in economic policy, assertiveness in regional disputes, and the potential for sudden leadership changes.
For the Region: Asian neighbors, especially India, Japan, and ASEAN states, must remain vigilant. Any instability or power struggle within China could spill over into the region, affecting trade, security, and diplomatic engagement.
For India: India faces both challenge and opportunity. A distracted or divided Chinese leadership may reduce immediate border tensions but could also lead to unpredictable behavior. India must strengthen its economic resilience, deepen strategic partnerships, and enhance its own governance to navigate the uncertainties ahead.
Futuristic Imperatives: Navigating the Uncharted
The coming years will test China's political system as never before. The CCP must balance the need for strong, centralized leadership with the imperative for institutional resilience and adaptability. For Xi, the challenge is to ensure that his legacy endures not through personal rule, but through the successful transmission of his vision to a new generation of leaders.
For the world, the imperative is to engage China with clarity and caution, recognizing both the promise and the peril of this pivotal transition. As China stands at the crossroads, so too does the global order.
The Next Act in China's Story
Xi Jinping's journey from unrivaled strongman to architect of a more distributed leadership marks a defining moment in China's modern history. Whether this transition leads to renewed vitality or deeper instability will shape not only China's future, but that of the entire world. For policymakers, strategists, and citizens alike, the message is clear: the age of Xi is evolving, and the world must be ready for whatever comes next.
[Major General Dr Dilawar Singh, a Ph.D. with multiple postgraduate degrees, is a seasoned expert with over four decades of experience in military policy formulation and counter-terrorism. He has been the National Director General in the Government of India. With extensive multinational exposure at the policy level, he is the Senior Vice President of the Global Economist Forum, AO, ECOSOC, United Nations. He is serving on numerous corporate boards. He has been regularly contributing deep insights into geostrategy, global economics, military affairs, sports, emerging technologies, and corporate governance.]
