An opinion poll conducted by Times Now and VMR, which involved 1,7000 respondents, shows a thumping majority for the Narendra Modi-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) alliance, consolidated by the airstrikes in Balakot, Pakistan, post the Pulwama terror attack.
The survey allocated 283 seats for the BJP-led NDA alliance way ahead of the 135 seats for Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA). An interesting surge in the seat share of the BJP-led NDA has been possible due to Prime Minister Narendra Modi's decision to strike the Jaish-e-Mohammad training camps in Balakot, which has turned the wave in his favour.
The regional parties are likely to get only 125 seats out of the total 543 seats.
"The earlier opinion poll conducted in January allocated at least 50 seats less to the NDA. But post the air strikes, the BJP-led government has gained a considerable share in votes as well as seats from Congress," the poll said.
The vote percentage predicted for NDA is 40.1 followed by 30.6 per cent for UPA and 29.3 per cent for regional parties.
How did Balakot strikes help BJP?
The opinion polls conducted prior to the IAF strikes in Balakot allocated just 251 seats to NDA, at least 30 seats lesser than what they are likely to get now. On the other hand, Congress-led UPA was projected to win 147 seats whereas regional parties' seat share stood at 144.
The survey said that Balakot sir strikes have helped the migration of votes from both Congress and other opposition parties to BJP and its allies especially from Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chattisgarh where BJP had not done well in the recently concluded Assembly polls. The shift of vote share is essentially seen from low-income groups and scheduled caste/ tribe communities. The middle/higher income groups loyalties have predominantly remained with BJP and its allies.
The NDA is expected to win 22 out of 29 seats in Madhya Pradesh, 20 out of 25 seats in Rajasthan and 6 out of 11 seats in Chattisgarh.
State wise seat shares
In Uttar Pradesh, which has the largest seat share among all the states at 80, the Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party combine may prove to be a tough competitor to NDA gaining 36 seats still behind BJP led alliance (42 seats).
In West Bengal, the BJP is projected to win at least 11 seats, making inroads whereas Chief Minister, Mamata Banerjee 's Trinamool Congress will be way ahead at 31 seats.
In Karnataka and Odisha, BJP is likely to emerge as the single largest party beating the regional parties such as Biju Janata Dal and JD-S-Congress alliance.
BJP will gain ground in Maharashtra with 39 seats share whereas in Bihar its coalition with Janata Dal-United will defeat Congress and Rashtriya Janata Dal alliance.
Down South, Congress-led alliance has some good news as its alliance United Democratic Front will gain a majority ( 16 out of 20 seats) and in Tamil Nadu, its alliance with DMK will gain 34 out of 39 seats.
In Telangana and Andhra Pradesh, the regional parties will be clearly ahead of both Congress and BJP winning 17 and 22 seats, respectively.