Exit poll projections for the West Bengal Assembly elections continued to present a divided picture, with Today's Chanakya forecasting a sweeping victory for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The projections were released on Friday, a day after the second phase of polling concluded.
According to the agency, the BJP is likely to secure around 192 seats, with a margin of error of 11 seats in the 294-member Assembly. In contrast, the ruling All India Trinamool Congress (TMC) is projected to win about 100 seats, while other parties may manage just two seats.
Most exit poll agencies have indicated a stronger footing for the BJP in the state, although at least two surveys have predicted a clear majority for the TMC.
Reacting sharply to the projections, TMC supremo Mamata Banerjee rejected the exit polls and expressed confidence in her party's victory. In a video message, Banerjee thanked voters for their participation despite adverse conditions and alleged that the exit polls were "paid and forced."
She claimed the TMC would cross 226 seats and accused the BJP of attempting to influence the election through money, power, and central agencies. Banerjee also raised concerns over possible tampering of EVMs and urged party candidates to remain vigilant at counting centres. She called for maintaining peace and asserted that the TMC would return to power.
Chanakya Exit Poll Also Sparks Debate in Kerala
Meanwhile, Today's Chanakya exit poll has also created political buzz in Kerala, where it has projected a close contest, challenging several other surveys that predicted a comfortable victory for the United Democratic Front (UDF).
While agencies such as Axis My India, People's Pulse, VoteVibe, Matrize, and JVC have projected the UDF to cross the majority mark in the 140-member Assembly, Today's Chanakya has suggested a hung House.
According to its projection, the UDF may secure 69 seats (+/-9), placing it in the 60–78 range, just around the majority mark of 71. The Left Democratic Front (LDF), led by the Communist Party of India (Marxist), is projected at 64 seats (+/-9), indicating a tight contest.
The National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), is expected to win 3–11 seats, potentially playing a role in a fractured mandate scenario.
Vote share estimates further underline the close contest, with the UDF projected at 40% (+/-3%), the LDF at 38% (+/-3%), and the NDA at 20% (+/-3%). Analysts say even small swings could significantly impact the final outcome.
Mamata Banerjee Dismisses Exit Polls, Predicts TMC Win
West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee has also dismissed exit poll predictions, alleging that they are politically motivated and influenced by the BJP. She said the projections were intended to demoralise Trinamool Congress (TMC) workers.
Banerjee expressed confidence that the "Maa-Mati-Manush" government enjoys strong public support and will secure a fourth consecutive term.
In a video message, she said: "We are very grateful to the people of Bengal. Despite the scorching heat and atrocities, you have cast your votes. I am also very grateful to TMC workers, who fought with their lives and endured the collective oppression of all the machinery of the Government of India, the Prime Minister, the Home Minister, and BJP leaders from 19 states, who tried to suppress Bengal with money, power, and firearms. But in the ballot, they themselves have been suppressed."
She further added: "I want to assure you that the exit polls are paid for and forced, and are as per a circular from the BJP's office to the media. We are going to cross 226 seats in 2026. I have full faith in the voters. I urge our candidates to guard their respective seats while counting is on. I will do so too. They have planned to exchange EVMs en route to counting centres. Do not leave the counting cabins until I say so through a press conference. Maintain peace and keep faith in me."
Banerjee also urged the administration to avoid using force against workers and alleged misuse of central agencies and forces during the elections.
Counting on May 4
Polling in West Bengal was conducted in two phases on April 23 and 29, recording high voter turnout. The counting of votes is scheduled for May 4, when the final results will be declared.
