Voting for the second phase of the West Bengal Assembly elections concluded on Wednesday evening, following which several media publications and survey agencies released exit poll projections for the five-phase state elections.
According to multiple exit polls, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is projected to form the government in West Bengal, while the ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC) is expected to trail in seat share.
As per projections by P-MARQ, the BJP is likely to secure 150–175 seats, while the TMC may win 118–138 seats. Other parties are expected to get 2–6 seats.
Poll Diary projects a similar trend, estimating 142–171 seats for the BJP, 99–127 seats for the TMC, and 0–1 seat for others.
Matrize projects 146–161 seats for the BJP, 125–140 seats for the TMC, and 6–10 seats for other parties.
Other projections include:
• Peoples Pulse: TMC 177–187, BJP 95–100, Others 0
• Chanakya Strategies: TMC 130–140, BJP 150–160, Others 6–10
The counting of votes for all five phases will take place on May 4.
Meanwhile, exit polls for the Assam Assembly elections suggest a decisive mandate for the NDA, with projections placing the BJP-led alliance between 88 and 101 seats, comfortably above the majority mark of 64.
The election is seen as a strong endorsement of Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma's leadership, with exit polls indicating a high voter turnout of 85.9%. Analysts credit welfare schemes like Orunodoi, direct benefit transfers, and land ownership initiatives for strengthening voter support, especially among women and rural communities.
The opposition, led by a fragmented Congress alliance, appears to have struggled with internal divisions and vote splitting, particularly due to the absence of a unified anti-BJP strategy.
Structural changes such as constituency delimitation, shifting tea tribe support towards the BJP, and welfare-driven voter consolidation are also seen as key factors shaping the outcome.
If confirmed, the results would reflect a broader political shift in Assam towards a hybrid model of identity politics and welfare-driven governance, strengthening the BJP's long-term dominance in the state.
#WATCH | Kolkata, West Bengal: On exit polls for West Bengal elections, BJP candidate from Nandigram and Bhabanipur, Suvendu Adhikari, says, "I'm telling you the exit poll from the ground. BJP is getting more than 180 seats. BJP is forming the government with a majority. Hindus… pic.twitter.com/1YOjIaM70I
— ANI (@ANI) April 29, 2026
The latest Kamakhya exit poll on Wednesday injected fresh uncertainty into Tamil Nadu's political landscape, predicting a tightly contested three-way battle among the DMK-led alliance, the AIADMK-led bloc, and actor Vijay's emerging political outfit, TVK.
According to the Kamakhya projections, the DMK-led Secular Progressive Alliance (DMK+) is expected to secure between 78 and 95 seats in the 234-member Assembly. While this places the ruling alliance in a leading position, it falls short of the majority mark, suggesting that retaining power may not be straightforward for Chief Minister M.K. Stalin.
The AIADMK-led alliance (AIADMK+), which includes the BJP and other allies, is projected to win between 68 and 84 seats. This puts the Opposition within striking distance of power, indicating a significant revival compared to previous electoral performances. The numbers suggest that anti-incumbency sentiments, if consolidated, could tilt the balance in favour of the Opposition bloc.
Adding a dramatic twist to the electoral arithmetic is the strong showing predicted for Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), led by actor-turned-politician Vijay. The TVK is estimated to win between 67 and 81 seats, marking a remarkable debut performance and positioning it as a potential kingmaker in a fractured mandate scenario.
The exit poll points to a highly fragmented verdict, with no single alliance comfortably crossing the halfway mark of 118 seats required to form the government. This opens up the possibility of post-poll alliances, negotiations, and strategic realignments that could ultimately determine who governs the state.
Political observers note that the rise of TVK has significantly altered the traditional bipolar contest between the DMK and AIADMK. Vijay's entry appears to have cut into vote shares across regions, creating a more competitive and unpredictable electoral environment. With all three formations projected within a competitive range, even small swings in vote share could lead to major changes in seat outcomes.
