HD Kumaraswamy
HD Kumaraswamy.HD Kumaraswamy Facebook Page

Janata Dal (Secular) president HD Kumaraswamy, who had exuded confidence over winning the election and becoming Karnataka chief minister, has apparently changed his stance -- the ex-chief minister is now said to be content with being rather the kingmaker. Curiously, the latest opinion polls say he will indeed be the kingmaker after the elections. 

After stating that JD(S) would emerge as the single largest party in the state all these days, Kumaraswamy has modified his stand to offer support any party that implements the manifesto of the JD(S). 

Political pundits might not have taken his words seriously, but the latest surveys indicate that his party will have a major role in forming the next government. The survey conducted by Kannada news channel Public TV shows that Congress will emerge as the single party by winning between 89 and 94 seats.

The BJP will also increase the number of seats from what was predicted earlier. The saffron party will end up in the second place by getting between 86 and 91 seats with the JD(S) is likely to get between 38 and 43 seats. Congress, BJP and JD(S) are seen getting 36, 33 and 23 percent of votes, respectively, as per the survey.

In another survey conducted by ABP News-CSDS, Congress is likely to get 97 seats while BJP would win in 84 seats and JD(S) in 37 seats. Both the polls indicate that JD(S) will get to play the role of a kingmaker after the elections. 

In the 2004 assembly elections, Karnataka had witnessed a similar situation when the BJP emerged as the single largest party due to the Vajypayee wave. It had got 79 seats and Congress 65, while JD(S) ended up winning 58 seats.

With the support of the JD(S), Congress formed the government with Dharam Singh as the chief minister. Unfortunately, two years later, HD Kumaraswamy brought down the government and formed his own government with the support of the BJP.

Interestingly, the latest survey by TV5 has given a clear majority to the BJP, which is projected to get 110-120 seats. Congress and JD(S) are expected to win 65-75 and 38-42, respectively.

However, most surveys in the last six months have consistently shown that Congress will emerge as the single largest party.

What earlier polls conducted in the last several months say

SourceCongressBJPJD (S)
C-Fore Survey 126 70 27
TV 9-C Voter 102 96 15
India Today-Karvy Karnataka 90-101 78-86 34-43
Public TV 90-100 85-95 40-45
Times Now- VMR 87-95 85-93 36-44
Creative Center for Political and Social Studies 85 112 25
ABP-CSDS 85-91 89-95 32-38
Jan Ki Baat 72-74 102-108 42-44
CHS 77-81 73-76 64-66