Markets are unable to make up their mind as to in which direction they want to go. They seem to be moving in no man's land. They gain for a couple of days and then lose for a few days. The only thing of interest is the pattern of gaining and losing days.
Last week, they lost on the first day of the week, gained on the next three and ended on the last day of the week with losses. BSESENSEX gained 319.87 points or 0.53 per cent to close at 61,002.57 points, while NIFTY gained 87.70 points or 0.49 per cent to close at 17,944.20 points.
The broader markets saw BSE100 and BSE200 gain 0.33 per cent and 0.01 per cent while BSE500 lost 0.07 per cent. BSEMIDCAP lost 0.82 per cent while BSESMALLCAP was down 0.77 per cent.
The Indian Rupee lost 33 paisa or 0.29 per cent to close at Rs 82.83 to the US Dollar. Dow Jones had yet another flattish week losing 42.58 points or 0.13 per cent to close at 33,826.69 points. Dow gained on three of the five sessions and gains and losses were on alternate days.
Time flies and the Russia - Ukraine war or confrontation would be witnessing its first anniversary on the 24th of February. Markets had reacted initially when the war did break out, but things have very much evened out and supply chain logistics are back to normal.
Ukraine War
Interestingly Europe is the worst affected in terms of gas and crude from Russia being affected, yet stock markets in Europe are trading at new highs currently. The FTSE (British), CAC (French) and DAX (German) indices are currently at new highs.
Dow, which has witnessed unprecedented interest rate hikes, is down about 5 per cent from its 52-week high. India saw new lifetime highs being made on the 1st of December and is currently down about 4 per cent. Very clearly, the world is back to normal but for the two involved in the battle.
Markets are moving in a trading zone and are seeking direction. What could lead to the same is not clear and not sure. Even hazarding a guess is difficult. Results for the October - December quarter are completed and they have been more or less on expected lines with not too many positive or negative surprises. The good part is the costs pressures have abated and supply chain issues resolved.
New SEBI rules
SEBI has announced through a circular new disclosures and details to be made public about fresh fund-raising norms for IPOs, Rights issues and OFS. Prospective investors will be aware of what amount the company proposes to raise through the issue.
The week ahead sees February futures expire on Thursday the 23rd. The present value of NIFTY at 17,944.20 points is 52.25 points or 0.29 per cent higher for the February series. With the kind of volatility and four trading sessions left, the series is up for grabs. It could go either way.
The range for the series has been big between 17,353 - 18,134 points with the lows being made on budget day and the budget week being the one where markets were under pressure post the Adani Enterprises subscribed FPO being withdrawn.
Coming to the week ahead, expect markets to remain volatile but range bound. The immediate resistance, which is quite strong, continues to remain at 18,265 on NIFTY and at 61,400 on BSE sensex.
On the downside, strong support exists at levels of 17,650-17,700 on NIFTY and at 59,900 - 60,050 on BSESENSEX. Sell on strong rallies and buy on sharp dips. Keep an eye on Dow as markets tend to move in similar directions.
(Arun Kejriwal is the founder of Kejriwal Research and Investment Services. The views expressed are personal - IANS)
