With MLAs of Jammu and Kashmir set to vote on Friday to elect four members of the Rajya Sabha, the opposition BJP is confident of winning at least one seat.
Even as the ruling National Conference (NC) holds a numerical advantage in the Jammu and Kashmir Legislative Assembly, the BJP remains optimistic about securing the fourth Upper House seat—listed under notification number three—with its state president Sat Pal Sharma in the fray.
Given the numerical strength in the Assembly, all eyes are on the outcome of the fourth seat, where the National Conference and the BJP are locked in a close contest. The Saffron Party currently has 28 votes in its kitty.
The MLAs will cast their votes at three separate polling booths set up in the Legislative Assembly complex between 9:00 a.m. and 4:00 p.m. The counting of votes will take place at 5:00 p.m. and is expected to conclude within minutes.
While the National Conference's victory on three seats is a foregone conclusion, the result of the fourth seat is being closely watched. The BJP's advantage has diminished following the Congress, PDP, and independent MLA Shabir Kulley's decision to support the NC.
Based on current political equations, NC candidates enjoy the support of 57 MLAs, including 41 NC legislators, six Congress MLAs, six Independents, three PDP MLAs, and one CPI(M) MLA, while the BJP commands 28 votes. The choices of two MLAs — Mehraj Malik and Sheikh Khursheed — remain undisclosed. Malik, who is currently in detention under the Public Safety Act, cast his vote on Monday inside the Kathua District Jail.
The victory of NC candidates Choudhary Muhammad Ramzan and Sajjad Kichloo on the first two seats appears certain, as each is expected to secure 57 votes against the BJP's 28.
Unlike the first two seats, a combined election is being held for the third and fourth seats, where three candidates — Gurwinder Singh Oberoi, Imran Nabi Dar (both from the NC), and Sat Pal Sharma (BJP) — are locked in a direct contest. The two highest vote-getters in this combined election will be declared winners.
For these seats, MLAs of the ruling alliance are expected to split their votes between Gurwinder Singh Oberoi and Imran Nabi Dar, while all BJP MLAs will vote for Sat Pal Sharma.
The composition of the voting blocs — specifically, which MLAs within the ruling alliance will vote for which candidate — will be interesting to watch, especially as Independent legislators are not required to display their marked ballot papers to polling agents. The J&K Assembly currently has seven Independent MLAs.
BJP Convenes Crucial Meeting
A crucial strategy meeting of the BJP's senior leadership, including all party MLAs, was convened on Thursday at the Srinagar residence of Leader of Opposition Sunil Sharma to finalise the party's approach for Friday's high-stakes election.
"The party leadership looks confident of managing numbers. However, the real picture will become clear only on Friday morning when voting for the Rajya Sabha elections begins," a senior BJP leader told The International Business Times on condition of anonymity.
As reported earlier, seven Independent MLAs — five of whom are already aligned with the ruling NC — hold the key to determining the outcome of the fourth Rajya Sabha seat. Their decision is expected to make or break the contest between the NC and the BJP.
Among the Independents backing the NC are Satish Sharma (Chhamb), who also serves as a minister in the Omar Abdullah-led government, Pyara Lal Sharma (Inderwal), Dr. Rameshwar Singh (Bani), Muzaffar Iqbal Khan (Thanamandi), and Choudhary Mohammad Akram (Surankote). Their support has significantly strengthened the NC's prospects for securing the crucial seat.
The decision of People's Conference (PC) chief and Handwara MLA Sajad Gani Lone to abstain from voting has effectively reduced the total number of votes in play to 87. With three candidates contesting for two Rajya Sabha seats under notification number three, the top two vote-getters will be declared elected.
The BJP, with its 28 MLAs, is banking on strategic abstentions and possible cross-voting to boost its chances. The remaining 59 votes, belonging to non-BJP MLAs, are expected to be split between NC nominees Shammi Oberoi and Imran Nabi Dar.
Political observers predict that if the 59 non-BJP votes are evenly distributed, Oberoi could secure around 30 votes and Dar about 29—enough for both NC candidates to sail through comfortably. The BJP's 28-member strength, however, leaves the party just short of the threshold unless Independents upset the equation.
For now, both camps are keeping their cards close to their chest, with intense backchannel negotiations underway. Friday's polling is expected to settle one of the most closely contested Rajya Sabha battles in Jammu and Kashmir's recent political history.
