The ongoing war between the US/Israel and Iran has had many of us wondering where the world is headed. Will things calm down or worsen? Will we see the next world war, etc, etc. Debates have been exploring different angles to the scenario and the common man is glued to his phone. Another imminent disaster goes unnoticed and not discussed in public circles. Even political leaders have placed it way below in the priorities list -- the climate bogey. And yet, this one is as worrisome and perhaps more potent in the clear and present danger it presents.
Once again (after 2018), scientists are now warning us that Earth is nearing the point of no return from a 3-4 deg rise in temperature above preindustrial era. Many tipping points, around 16, are on the point of being breached and once that happens we will see a self-sustained cycle of warming! We are not there yet, but we are very close, says the study published in One Earth.
Some of these tipping points are the collapse of Greenland ice sheet, weakening of the Atlantic Ocean currents that affects the weather, melting permafrost that will see expose the methane, and fast disappearing rainforest of Amazon that becomes from a carbon source from a carbon sink!
Once these points are crossed, we will see a runaway warming and no cutting down of fossil fuel emissions, not even totally, will help! We will have a 'Hothouse Earth'.
The science is not able to predict when exactly the tipping will happen.
The State of Climate, 2025 report meanwhile said that 22 of the planet's 34 vital signs are trending sharply in the wrong direction. These include ocean heat content, surface temperature, fire related tree cover loss, sea ice loss, etc.
Another research from Global Carbon Project shows that climate change has been intensified by hydrogen emissions from pipelines, production and storage facilities as well as from emissions of methane. Through an indirect action, hydrogen heats up the atmosphere 11 times faster than co2. What else out there remains unknown is a serious question.
If we touch the 3-4 deg rise, what can happen? Heat waves, drop in food production, shrinking glaciers and water scarcity, coastal city inundation, droughts and floods, the list goes on.
On a hot planet
The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) warned in 2024 that Staple crops like wheat, maize, and rice suffer dramatic yield declines when temperatures consistently rise above 35°C, the FAO had warned in 2024. We have seen how heat and drought in recent years affected harvests in the US, Australia, and India. Dairy and meat production also would be affected as cattle face stress. More mosquito borne diseases like dengue, malaria and Zika will spread to new regions with rising temperatures, as warned by WHO.
Almost half of all species could face extinction at 4°C rise in temperature. With the loss of biodiversity we will see spread of diseases, food webs destabilised and collapse of ecosystems.
The hot clime will also shrink the global GDP by more than 10 percent by 2100, as predicted in a 2023 study published in Nature.
Any guesses on who will suffer the most? Of course, the poor nations in Asia and Africa who are least equipped economically and technically to cope and adapt.
The planet is probably now in its hottest state since 125,000 years and for sure, since the last 11,000 years. Global CO2 emissions are almost 185 times higher than they were in 1850, just before the Industrial Revolution. The carbon levels in the atmosphere are the highest in 2 million years. A slight dip was witnessed during the Covid years.
Today, China is the largest emitter followed by the US, India, Russia and Japan. However, when looking at per capita emissions (emissions per person) the US is still way ahead at double the emissions of China and eight times that of India.
Paris and after
The Paris accord signed in 2015 had sought reduction in emissions from nations so that temperature doesn't rise by more than 2 deg C, or ideally 1.5 deg C, by end of century (average calculated over 20 years). The average of the last three years shows it has crossed 1.5 already! The present trends show that even with the Paris accord pledges on emissions we are headed for a 3 deg C rise. Without sticking to the pledges, we can expect a 4 deg rise. Many calculations have claimed that a tripling of reductions committed to in the Paris accord is needed to stay within a 2 deg rise.
Unlike the earlier 1997 Kyoto Protocol, wherein countries committed to binding emission targets, under the Paris framework it was left to nations to set their climate plans according to Nationally Determined Contributions. National interests and politics have taken precedence as witnessed by the US under Trump totally withdrawing from any commitments.
The agreement called upon developed nations who were primarily responsible for the carbon build-up to provide financial support to the developing world. This amount of 100 billion dollars by 2020 has not yet been disbursed! The developed nations were expected to curb more emissions than the developing world, and to do it faster. That hasn't happened either. The Paris accord had no accurate mechanisms for monitoring and verifying the progress of NDCs.
Can do, but will do?
However, it must be admitted that the Paris accord did help change direction, even if not the speed of that change. We are progressing with renewable energy. The research team of the State of Climate report notes how solar and wind energy can supply up to 70 percent of global electricity by 2050, allowing for a rapid phase out of fossil fuels. By protecting our forest, wetlands, mangroves and peatlands we still can avoid 10 gigatonnes of Co2 emissions by 2050 (a quarter of our current emissions). By simply reducing food loss and waste we can avoid 8-10 percent of emissions, and do further by shifting to plant-rich diets.
The study on tipping points suggests that public and politicians are 'unaware' of the imminent dangers. This could indicate that popular media has been remiss on the subject. Beyond a few outlets that have dedicated space for environment news, a majority are happy ignoring climate change, biodiversity and the like. Besides a perceived sense of this being news that is not of interest to their audience, it could also point to a larger reason -- psychology of denial.
Yuval Noah Harari believes that we have become more interested in fiction than reality. That the Amazon forest, which is a critical lung space for all life, can be lost does not perturb the masses as much as the probability of a Burj Khalifa hit by a missile! Truth is too painful and complicated, said Yuval, in a discussion on virtual reality and fact.
We often hide behind the claim that we cannot believe something we cannot directly experience. But we cannot see what is happening inside our bodies but will waste no time to pop the pill prescribed by the doctor. Despite the hard science we all love to cite for anything as the final proof, we refuse to act on climate change. For everything else we swear by science, but when it is time to do something together for sustaining life on the planet, each nation hides behind economy and growth.
We fail to realise there can be no growth at all once the heat gallops away. We will be left with nothing short of wars at home and with nations for basic needs of life like water and food, forget AI!
Even if we do not act to prevent the rise in temperature in our preoccupation with 'growth', the least we must do is to prepare for the eventuality by building resilience into our food, housing and healthcare systems. This means demanding action from governments.
Mass mobilisation
If not for collective action how can we convince our leaders to act fast and prevent a climate catastrophe? Politicians will hesitate to act, as tough actions required could make them unpopular with certain influential lobbies like the fossil fuel one. It is only an enlightened public that can demand accountability from their leaders in credible climate actions. Has the urgency of the climate crisis not been clearly communicated to them? Why is the deteriorating health of the planet not a public concern?
To end on a hopeful note, a study co-authored by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and published in Nature Human Behaviour, shows that the public in developed nations support climate policy even when it meant a substantial financial flow from their nations to the Global South. The study was based on two scientifically rigorous representative surveys, says a PIK press release.
But as the lead author puts it, given such a positive response it is not evident why there is not much progress in climate action globally. Studies like these could help shift perceptions of what is realistic and acceptable, and embolden leaders to take necessary steps.
We do not have the luxury of time.
