The United States is going through one of its most tumultuous times as of now, with calls from many quarters for President Donald Trump to resign, even after white supremacists and neo-Nazis try to enact a small uprising.
So, is Trump on his way out, especially after the Charlottesville tragedy and its aftermath, where the billionaire business tycoon-turned-politician refused to condemn the white supremacists and neo-Nazis?
His biographer says he should be out by the end of the year, while a New York Times opinion piece says he may have resigned in all but name when he refused to directly blame those guilty for the Charlottesville incidents.
But leaving aside all else, Trump may be closer to being impeached than ever before, with just six votes standing between him and an untimely stepping-down from the position that is considered the leader of the free world.
So, is Trump resigning?
Tony Schwartz — the man who spent 18 months with Trump to help him ghost-wrote his 1987 memoir The Art of Deal — said in a tweet on Thursday, August 17: "The circle is closing at blinding speed. Trump is going to resign and declare victory before Mueller and Congress leave him no choice."
He said in another tweet after that: "Trump's presidency is effectively over. Would be amazed if he survives till the end of the year. More likely resigns by fall, if not sooner."
New York Times columnist Frank Bruni went a step further when he said in a Friday opinion piece that President had already quit. "Trump resigned the presidency already — if we regard the job as one of moral stewardship, if we assume that an iota of civic concern must joust with self-regard, if we expect a president's interest in legislation to rise above vacuous theatrics, if we consider a certain baseline of diplomatic etiquette to be part of the equation," he wrote.
But seriously, guys...
Conjecture and behaviour aside, there is every chance of Trump resigning soon. The bets are on. Literally!
UK-based betting organisation Paddy Power on Friday slashed Trump's chances of resigning before the end of his first term from 6/4 — 40 percent — to evens, meaning there is a good 50 percent chance that he will resign before his term ends.
And even if he does not resign — and given that we are talking about Trump, this is a big possibility because he does not seem to like defeat in any form — he may be impeached from office.
Elaine C Kamarck writes in a Newsweek opinion piece about the possibility of Trump being impeached and convicted and having to leave office as a result: "Following impeachment in the House, a trial takes place in the Senate. Conviction requires two-thirds of the Senate and by my count, there are already twelve senators who have shown a willingness to take on the president when they believe he is in the wrong."
She adds: "If you add that to the forty-eight Democrats in the Senate (who have shown no inclination to work with this President), Donald Trump could be six votes away from a conviction in the Senate."
The math is thus: The US Senate has 100 members, out of which two-thirds — 66 or 67, depending on how 66.67 is rounded off — have to vote for a conviction. All 48 Democrat Senators are bound to vote against Trump, as will 12 Republicans, according to the piece. That brings it to 60. Therefore, another six or seven Republican Senators need to change sides for Trump to go.
Paddy power, incidentally, confirmed to IBTimes India that Trump "is 4/6 to be impeached in his first year."