The Bharatiya Janata Party is nearing the 200-seat mark after crossing the halfway figure in the West Bengal Assembly elections 2026, with trends pointing towards a decisive shift in the state's political landscape. The All India Trinamool Congress is staring at a potential defeat after 15 years in power, in what is also the first election following a large-scale voter revision exercise under the Special Intensive Revision (SIR).
Defending its stronghold, Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee's Trinamool Congress is locked in a direct contest with the BJP, whose campaign in the state has been fronted by her former aide-turned-rival, Leader of Opposition Suvendu Adhikari. Other players include the Congress and the Left Front, while a new entrant led by suspended Trinamool MLA Humayun Kabir has added another layer to the contest.
Voting in Bengal was held in two phases on April 23 and 29, with repolling conducted in parts of Falta and select booths.
The assembly math
The West Bengal Assembly has 294 seats, with the majority mark set at 148. Any party or alliance crossing this figure will be in a position to form the government. Exit polls had failed to project a clear winner.
In 2021, the Trinamool Congress won 215 seats, while the BJP secured 77 seats to emerge as the principal opposition. Banerjee had lost in Nandigram to Adhikari but later returned to the Assembly via a bypoll from Bhabanipur.
This time, Adhikari has taken the battle to Bhabanipur, making it one of the most closely watched constituencies during counting.
BJP surge and ground trends
On counting day, Suvendu Adhikari asserted that the BJP is set to form the government, reiterating that the Trinamool Congress would not cross the 100-seat mark.
"The BJP is forming the government. The Trinamool Congress will win some seats, but they will not reach three figures," he said, adding that the trend would become clearer as counting progresses.
Referring to his performance in Nandigram, he noted that his vote margin has increased significantly compared to 2021 and is expected to widen further in subsequent rounds. He also claimed the BJP has secured around 45% vote share compared to TMC's 38%.
District-wise dominance
Early trends indicate BJP's sweeping leads across multiple districts where Trinamool candidates are not ahead in any constituency. These include Alipurduar and Jalpaiguri in North Bengal, and Jhargram and West Burdwan in South Bengal.
In Jhargram district, part of the tribal-dominated Jangalmahal region, BJP candidates are leading in all four constituencies — Nayagram, Gopiballavpur, Jhargram and Binpur (ST).
Similarly, in Alipurduar, BJP is ahead in all five constituencies, while in Jalpaiguri — a key tea garden belt with significant tribal and Rajbangshi voters — the party is leading across all seven seats.
West Burdwan has also shown a clean sweep trend for the BJP, with leads in all seven constituencies, including Asansol (Dakshin), where Agnimitra Paul is comfortably ahead.
Panihati contest
Ratna Debnath, a BJP candidate and mother of the RG Kar rape and murder victim, is leading from Panihati in West Bengal. Her decision to contest was driven by concerns over women's safety and alleged systemic failures, with the RG Kar case triggering nationwide outrage.
The Panihati seat in North 24 Parganas has been held by TMC MLA Nirmal Ghosh since 2011. Debnath is contesting against TMC's Tirthankar Ghosh, CPI(M)'s Kalatan Dasgupta, and Independent candidate Sadhana Chakraborty.
According to Election Commission data after the first round, Debnath is leading with 6,892 votes, followed by TMC's Tirthankar Ghosh with 4,129 votes, and CPI(M)'s Kalatan Dasgupta with 1,359 votes.
During campaigning, Debnath had sharply criticised Mamata Banerjee over the RG Kar case, raising questions over accountability and justice.
A shifting political landscape
Earlier, Prime Minister Narendra Modi had predicted that there would be several districts where the Trinamool Congress would struggle to open its account — a trend that now appears to be reflected in early counting data.
With counting still underway, the final outcome remains to be confirmed, but early trends strongly indicate a potential power shift in West Bengal.
