The State of the Nation March 2019 Wave 2 opinion poll conducted by CVoter for IANS shows the likely vote percentage for the two main poles of national politics, the NDA and UPA in this year's general elections.
A pre-poll alliance scenario for the BJP-led NDA formation would help it garner 42 per cent of the vote nationally, while for the Congress-led UPA alliance the vote percentage for the pre-poll allies would be 30.4 per cent.
The CVoter State of the Nation March 2019 Wave 2 opinion poll released on March 24 is based on a sample survey of 10,280 this week and a cumulative base of 70,000 respondents since January 1 covering 543 Lok Sabha constituencies.
The NDA is banking on the BJP's narrative on nationalism to deliver the elections for it. While it has spoken of increasing employment opportunities under its watch, alleviation of farm distress and economic growth, nationalism has been its mainstay.
The NDA has a distinct advantage over the rival formation in key states in the vote share projections. In Uttar Pradesh, where the Congress is not part of a mahagathbandhan, the NDA is likely to get 35.4 per cent of the vote.
This is even though the NDA is expected to get far fewer seats compared to 2014 as indicated by the CVoter opinion poll. In Bihar, the NDA's vote share is expected to be 52.6 per cent and in Rajasthan, the NDA is expected to get 50.7 per cent of the vote while in the BJP stronghold of Gujarat, the CVoter opinion poll suggests that the NDA will get 58.2 per cent of the vote share.
In Maharashtra, the NDA is expected to have a vote share of 48.1 per cent while in BJP-ruled Haryana, the NDA could get 42.6 per cent of the vote according to the vote share projections.
However, there are states where the two alliances are not as far apart on vote share and in some the NDA is actually behind, the CVoter opinion poll shows. Tamil Nadu is one of such states, Kerala is another. The two sides are neck and neck in Karnataka.
Seat share projections for the NDA, based on pre-poll alliances, shows it will fall short of a House majority with 261 seats -- an earlier CVoter opinion poll on March 10 had put this number at 264. The second survey shows that the BJP will get 241 seats on its own.
However, the surge from post-poll alliances would push it well above the majority mark of 272.
This is how the CVoter opinion poll says the numbers are likely to stack up for the NDA should the post-poll alliances click. The YSR Congress Party led by Y.S. Jagan Mohan Reddy is expected to win 10 Lok Sabha seats in Andhra Pradesh, the Mizo National Front is likely to get one seat, the Biju Janata Dal 10 seats and the Telangana Rashtra Samiti 16 seats -- a total of 37 seats between them. Added to the pre-poll NDA alliance, the BJP-led alliance is expected to have an overall tally of 298 seats according to the CVoter opinion poll.
In fact, the pre-poll alliance situation shows how the political parties concerned are adding to the BJP-led alliance's numbers. The CVoter opinion poll highlights how in Bihar, the NDA is expected to win 36 seats with the help of allies Janata Dal (United) and Lok Janshakti Party who together are expected to win 20 seats to the BJP's 16.
The BJP's other pre-poll allies are: Maharashtra -- Shiv Sena (14 seats); Assam -- Bodoland Peoples' Front (one seat); Punjab -- Shiromani Akali Dal (Badal), one seat; Tamil Nadu -- AIADMK (7 seats): Uttar Pradesh -- Apna Dal (Sonelal), one seat.
Taken together, these pre-poll allies are expected to give a boost of 47 seats to the ruling alliance in the country.
Uttar Pradesh, India's politically most important state with 80 Lok Sabha seats, presents an interesting scenario. In the pre-poll alliance case, the NDA is expected to get 28 seats to the UPA's four. It is a drastic markdown from the 73 Lok Sabha seats the NDA got in 2014 but it remains ahead of the rival alliance.
However, should the Congress-led alliance forge a last-minute post-poll tie-up and become a part of the mahagathbandhan, this equation would change dramatically, giving the anti-NDA alliance 52 seats in all.
What happens in Uttar Pradesh with the mahagathbandhan will also cast a shadow on vote share projections, the CVoter opinion poll shows.