With the expiry of the deadline for filing nomination papers for the Rajya Sabha elections in Jammu and Kashmir, the battle lines are now clearly drawn for the four seats of the Upper House of Parliament, with nine candidates entering the fray.
Monday was the last date for filing nominations, while the scrutiny of papers will take place at 11 a.m. on October 14 in the office of the Returning Officer. The last date for withdrawal of nominations is October 16. If necessary, polling will be held on October 24 from 9 a.m. to 4 p.m., followed by counting at 5 p.m.
The ruling National Conference (NC) has fielded four candidates for all four seats, while the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has filed nominations for three seats. In addition, two Independent candidates have also submitted their papers, though their nominations are likely to be rejected since a minimum of 10 MLAs' signatures are required to propose a valid nomination.
A total of nine candidates submitted their nomination papers before the Returning Officer, Manoj Pandita, who also serves as the Secretary of the Assembly.
NC Poised to Win First Two Seats Easily
For the first notification, under which elections will be held for one seat, National Conference's Choudhary Mohammad Ramzan and BJP's Ali Mohammad Mir have filed their nomination papers. An Independent candidate, Prabhakar Dada, has also entered the contest.
With more than 50 votes in its favour, the ruling NC is expected to win this seat comfortably, as the BJP has only 28 votes. The National Conference does not require the support of the Congress or the People's Democratic Party (PDP) to secure this seat.
A similar situation exists for the second seat. Under the second notification, NC's Sajjad Kichloo and BJP's Rakesh Mahajan have filed nomination papers. Kichloo is expected to win easily, given that the voting pattern is likely to mirror that of the first seat.
Real Contest on the Third and Fourth Seats
The real contest is expected on the third and fourth seats, which fall under notification number three. These two seats are likely to witness an intense political battle, as the ruling National Conference will need the support of all non-BJP parties to ensure the victory of both its candidates—Gurwinder Singh Oberoi (popularly known as Shammi Oberoi) and Imran Dar.
BJP state president Sat Pal Sharma has also filed nomination papers for this segment, while an Independent candidate, Kante Sayanna, has entered the fray as well. The two candidates securing the highest number of votes will win the two seats under this notification.
According to sources, the NC-led alliance expects to ensure the victory of Gurwinder Singh Oberoi by securing at least 29 votes, while allocating the remaining 24 votes to Imran Dar. To win Dar's seat, the National Conference requires the support of the PDP (3 MLAs), CPM (1 MLA), Aam Aadmi Party (1 MLA), Peoples Conference (1 MLA), and seven Independents. Dar filed his nomination at the eleventh hour, following the Congress's refusal to contest what it described as a "risky" seat.
Equations Inside the House
In the 88-member House, the BJP holds 28 votes, while the non-BJP bloc controls around 60. If the ruling National Conference manages to secure 30 votes each for its two candidates from the non-BJP bloc, both seats can be comfortably won. However, political observers note that this outcome appears uncertain due to contradictions and a lack of cohesion among the non-BJP parties.
