Each election, exit polls and pre-poll surveys battle allegations of eroding credibility amidst high decibel political debates. Regardless, each year they toss around many possibilities of election results, invariably one of them is true.
With Madhya Pradesh set to go to polls later this year for the 230 assembly seats, pre-poll surveys, often contradicting each other, have started trickling in. For the 230 Vidhan Sabha seats, a total of 3,800 candidates are in the fray.
Those predicting victory for the Congress
It's simply a battle between two national parties, since regional parties have never played an active role in the political scenario of the state. However, like last elections, the independents could play an active role as the king maker in the state.
A pre-poll survey conducted by IBC24 predicts a clear win for the Congress with 119 seats. The BJP, according to the survey, will be a close second with 101 seats likely under its ambit. Strong anti-incumbency sentiments or several economic measures will likely play a prominent part in the how the voters play out.
Another pre poll survey by ABP-C Voter predicts 117 seats for the Congress and 106 for the BJP. It expects others, including independents and regional parties, to not secure more than 7 seats.
Those predicting a win for the BJP
Two opinion polls, namely those conducted by Times Now and NewsNation have predicted that BJP will likely retain its government in the state. A pre poll survey by Times Now predicts not just a comfortable but a staggering majority of 153 seats for the BJP. According to this survey, Congress will lag behind with just 58 seats.
If the elections were to happen today
They say a week or even a day is a long time in politics. A pre poll survey, conducted by Zee News in partnership with Matrize, with reportedly a sample size of 46,000, says that, "if the elections are held today, BJP is likely fetch about 45% votes while Congress is projected a closer second with about 39% votes." Talking in terms of number of seats, it predicts that BJP would likely retain 119 to 129 seats, while Congress can expect seats ranging from 94 to 114.
The elections, however, are not being held today and are slated for much later in the last quarter of this year.
