Lok Sabha Polls 2024 will throw up many poll battles to watch out for; some promise to be cut-throat contests, others battles of the ego, many quite volatile and downright unpredictable. Does the battle between Narendra Modi and Ajai Rai promise to be one of them?
Only a few days ago when the Congress released its fourth list of candidates, in which it fielded UP Congress president Ajai Rai vs Narendra Modi from Varanasi, many of the saffron party's workers flooding the social media, mocked Rai for his persistence. After all, this is the third time that Rai is contesting the Varanasi seat in UP, where he previously lost to PM Modi in 2014 and later in 2019.
The results might be a foregone conclusion considering the saffron party has invested significant wealth, attention, public resources and media to prop up a cult figure of the Prime Minister. Many of the soft editorials and opinions and political analysts have applauded Rai for his courage and conviction. There is far too much equity placed on the PM and it is not a fair battle on counts many more than one.
Despite all the attention and diversion from it, Varanasi still remains a battle to watch out for. Well versed with the political topography of the region, Rai began with his career as a worker of the RSS, following which he was made the convener of the BJP's student wing ABVP (Akhil Bhartiya Vidya Parishad). A five-time MLA, Rai later went on to contest from Varanasi on SP ticket too, but lost.
Rai's entry into the Indian National Congress happened in 2012 and two years later he was first pitted against Modi in 2014 after Modi picked Varanasi as his constituency. In 2014, AAP chief Arvind Kejriwal too entered the fray and challenged Modi, making Rai finish third. Many have criticized the Congress for not fielding a 'stronger' candidate to counter the PM. Perhaps, one of the Gandhis, as the argument goes on social media. However, Rai continues to be a significant figure in the Congress holding key organizational responsibilities.
What do the past trends say?
Varanasi constituency, comprising five assembly seats, has always been a BJP stronghold. With the saffron party having won the seat seven times and Congress six since 1957. Particularly, since 1991, BJP has lost only once to the Congress, which was in 2004. In the last Lok Sabha elections of 2009, Modi secured over 6 lakh votes, while SP's Shalini Yadav secured a little under 2 lakh votes. But notably, Ajay Rai's vote bank increased significantly from 2014 to 2019, although he has always been a distant third in the polling numbers.
As for Congress fielding him, the reverse psychology could be at play and many have questioned the resolve of the Congress and Rai together in defeating the PM. Rai, belongs to the community of Bhumihars which forms one of the primary vote banks in the state and with caste invariably playing a strong factor in elections, Rai's defeat even by a small margin would be considered a win for the Congress and a dent in PM Modi's popularity. A narrative that will resonate well with the opposition and most likely be dismissed by the ruling party. In politics, any development can be expected, even a week is a long time and nothing is a given.
