The conflict involving Iran is anticipated to last through the remainder of President Donald Trump's term and extend into the tenure of his successor, according to a former senior White House Middle East official.
Brett McGurk, who coordinated Middle East and North Africa affairs under President Joe Biden, indicated there is no clear solution to the Iran issue. He forecasted prolonged economic sanctions, sporadic military confrontations, and occasional temporary ceasefires.
Speaking on CNN, McGurk stated that the problem with Iran is a chronic one, having persisted since Jimmy Carter's presidency, and will continue beyond Trump's administration.
He noted a fundamental shift in the Middle East's power dynamics following the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack on Israel and mentioned two military campaigns involving Iran, including Operation Midnight Hammeragainst its nuclear facilities.
McGurk expressed concern that the latest conflict started with an open-ended aim of regime change, which complicates winding down the confrontation.
He added that an end to the conflict would require a fundamental change or collapse of Iran's political system, which, he said, is unlikely in the near term.
"We are in this period and it's going to last for some time," McGurk said, predicting ongoing serious economic sanctions and occasional military and ceasefire exchanges.
also highlighted that achieving a comprehensive nuclear deal appears more challenging, as Tehran likely considers its nuclear threshold status a key deterrent.
Separately, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright confirmed that the Trump administration is maintaining both diplomatic and military options concerning Iran.
On CBS News, Wright emphasized the president's firm stance against Iran obtaining nuclear weapons, stating that all avenues are being pursued to prevent this outcome.
When questioned about potential escalation after Election Day, Wright declined to disclose specific plans but said Trump is continuously preparing for contingencies while negotiating.
Wright acknowledged the risks to Gulf oil infrastructure amid the conflict but forecasted a drop in gasoline and diesel prices soon, citing increased supplies and reduced demand following summer.
He stated Trump was aware of the short-term energy price rise his Iran policies might cause but prioritized preventing a nuclear-armed Iran over political convenience.
The conflict's impact on domestic politics is notable as midterm elections approach, with polls showing most voters link it to higher US gas and oil prices.
Former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie and various media outlets have reported the war is influencing Republican candidates' fortunes.
Military communities are particularly affected politically, exemplified by a key congressional race in Virginia where candidates differ on support for the Iran conflict.
Arizona Senator Mark Kelly criticized the administration's management of the war, calling it a disaster and lacking strategic planning.
Republican Senator John Kennedy also acknowledged the economic consequences, linking inflation issues to the Iran war and suggesting prices will fall after the conflict ends.
