Historic Upset: PDP Stuns NC, Wins Budgam Seat for the First Time

In a major political upset in the Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir, the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) snatched the Budgam Assembly seat from the ruling National Conference (NC) in a keenly watched by-election.

For the first time in Jammu and Kashmir's political history, the National Conference has lost an election from the Budgam Assembly seat, where Shia voters have a significant presence. Since 1962, the NC had lost the Budgam seat only once—in 1972, when the party did not contest the polls.

The victory of the People's Democratic Party in this seat marked the revival of the party in the Kashmir Valley after the worst-ever defeat of the party in the 2024 Assembly elections.

In the high-stakes by-election, PDP candidate Aga Syed Muntazir Mehdi defeated NC nominee Aga Syed Mahmood Al-Masovi by a margin of 4,478 votes. The PDP candidate secured 21,576 votes, while the NC candidate received 17,098 votes. BJP candidate Aga Syed Mohsin Mosvi managed only 2,619 votes, trailing behind two Independent candidates: Nazir Ahmed Khan with 3,089 votes and Muntazir Mohi-ud-Din, who secured 3,030 votes.

"I want to thank the people of Budgam for sidelining the government's 50 MLAs and giving a chance to the PDP. I pray to God to give us the strength to stand up to the expectations of the people of Budgam. Aga Muntazir Mehdi's doors have and will always be open for the people," PDP president Mehbooba Mufti said after the Election Commission of India officially declared the bypoll results.

History of Budgam Assembly Seat
Year                                 Winning Candidate                                                              Party
1962                                Aga Syed Ali Safvi                                                       National Conference
1967                                H. S. Mehdi                                                                   National Conference
1972                                Ali Mohammad Mir                                                     Indian National Congress
1977                                Syed Ghulam Hussain                                                National Conference
1983                                Syed Ghulam Hussain                                                National Conference
1987                                Syed Ghulam Hussain                                                National Conference
1996                                Syed Ghulam Hussain                                                National Conference
2002                                Aga Ruhullah Mehdi                                                   National Conference
2008                                Aga Ruhullah Mehdi                                                   National Conference
2014                                Aga Ruhullah Mehdi                                                   National Conference
2024                                Omar Abdullah                                                            National Conference
2025                                Aga Syed Muntazir Mehdi                                         PDP

The Budgam contest was crucial for different reasons. The seat fell vacant after Chief Minister Omar Abdullah resigned from one of his two constituencies, choosing to retain the other. In the 2024 elections, Omar had won Budgam decisively, polling 36,010 votes against 17,525 votes secured by the PDP's Aga Syed Muntazir Mehdi.

For the by-election, the National Conference fielded Aga Syed Mehmood, aiming to retain the seat and reaffirm its dominance in central Kashmir. The PDP once again placed its confidence in Aga Syed Muntazir Mehdi, banking on his grassroots connect and the strong religious influence of the Aga family in Budgam.

With just three Assembly seats after its worst-ever performance in 2024, the PDP treated this bypoll as a critical turning point—an opportunity to re-establish its footing in the Valley's political landscape. The victory has not only boosted the morale of its cadre but also reasserted the party's relevance in a post–Article 370 political environment dominated by the NC and several resurgent regional players.

The NC, for its part, left nothing to chance. Senior leaders, including Omar Abdullah, his advisor Nasir Aslam Wani, and a majority of party MLAs, campaigned aggressively, portraying the by-election as a vote of confidence in the government's first year of governance.

For the PDP, the victory marks a significant political milestone. Until now, the party had only three members in the Jammu and Kashmir Legislative Assembly. With this win, the PDP will now have four MLAs, strengthening its voice in the House.

With a strong margin and a historic breakthrough, the PDP's victory in Budgam is being widely viewed as a sign of shifting political currents in central Kashmir. The party leadership is expected to capitalise on this momentum as it prepares for a massive revival.