Trouble is brewing in Prime Minister Narendra Modi's home state of Gujarat, where elections to civic bodies will be held on 22 and 29 November, as the Patels have vowed to spoil the Bhartiya Janata Party's chances in the polls.
The state will be electing new representatives to six of the eight municipal corporations, 56 municipalities, 31 district panchayats and 230 taluk panchayats.
The six municipal corporations of Ahmedabad, Surat, Vadodara, Rajkot, Jamnagar and Bhavnagar go to polls on 22 November, just 14 days after the results of the Bihar Assembly poll results were declared, which saw the BJP-led NDA being humiliated by the Grand Alliance comprising the JD(U), the RJD and the Congress.
The BJP had swept the polls to the six municipal corporations, getting a simple majority in Jamnagar and two-thirds in the rest, in October 2010.
The Patels, who constitute about 15% of the state's 6.03 crore population, are determined to seek revenge after the state government crushing their protests spearheaded by Patel Anamat Andolan Samiti leader Hardik Patel in August left nine people dead and many injured.
The community has been demanding reservation benefits in education and government jobs for Patels, who are both influential and affluent in the state.
"We are keen to teach the BJP a lesson because the party has not respected us. In all Patel-dominated areas, we have put up banners and hoardings asking BJP leaders to not enter and ask for our votes," Varin Patel, spokesperson of the Sardar Patel Group (SPG), told The Hindu.
The Patel community is likely to be the X-factor in the civic body polls, where the stakes are high for the BJP. A negative outcome for the BJP is bound to dent its workers' morale further, but worse would be the hit on Modi's aura of invincibility, though the party would play it down, as it did after the results of the Bihar Assembly and Delhi Assembly polls were declared.
With the winter session of the Parliament set to begin on 26 November, just a week after the results are declared on 2 December, a poor showing by the BJP could spell more trouble for the Modi government at the Centre. It will trigger another wave of dissent, after party elders Yashwant Sinha, Murli Manohar Joshi, Shanta Kumar and L K Advani recently spoke against the present party leadership, which has become synonymous with Modi and Amit Shah.
