The second wave of Covid has waned in India, and medical experts in the country are now awaiting a potential third wave that could hit the nation anytime soon. Amid looming scare, a study conducted by a team of Bangalore scientists has suggested that the third wave of the pandemic in Karnataka may witness seven times more Covid cases among children than the previous wave. The study report noted that findings like these could help shape public health strategies in the coming months.
Is it possible to avert the third wave?
The study report also made it clear that the third wave of the Covid pandemic can be averted by doubling the vaccination rates, and by assuring strict restrictions and mandating the usage of masks and sanitizers.
The revelation from this team of Bangalore scientists hints at the necessity of increasing the number of pediatric ICU beds in Karnataka.
"The study is not to scare but to prepare. Even if they develop Covid-19 infection, most of the kids would not require a hospital stay. The seven times more estimate is on average, and it could range between three and ten," Giridhara Babu, an epidemiologist at the Indian Institute of Public Health and one of the co-authors told Deccan Herald.
Researchers who were part of this study made this conclusion using a sophisticated modeling exercise, and they made it clear that failing in following Covid safety protocols could result in the outbreak of the third wave.
The possibility of the third wave
According to the study report, the third wave could hit the nation only by early 2022 if the immunity offered by the vaccines lasts for the next 180 days.
"If we assume that there is no antibody waning at least for 180 days, then, a new wave is predicted only at the beginning of next year, even if a new variant emerges before September 2021," wrote the researchers in the study report.