Figures for domestic car and two-wheeler sales in July will be declared both by listed and unlisted companies next week, setting the stage for trading in the first week of August at Indian stock markets. Among automobile makers that will be announcing volume sales data are Sensex companies such as Tata Motors, Mahindra and Maruti Suzuki, and two-wheeler makers Bajaj Auto and Hero Motocorp.
In a note, analysts at brokerage Nirmal Bang Equities said that July domestic sales are likely to show little surprises; new model launches, monsoon sentiments and seasonal trends will be the themes.
"We expect most original equipment manufacturers or OEMs to report single-digit YoY growth in sales in July 2016. July is a seasonally lean month for automobile sales and hence we don't expect any big surprise in despatches," Gaurant Dadwal and Vivek Sarin said in their July 29 note.
Car sales and commercial vehicles
"As regards cars, new models are expected to drive growth for some companies, while in case of commercial vehicles or CVs we expect single-digit YoY growth in medium and heavy commercial vehicles or MHCVs following recent deceleration in sales and a seasonally weak month for CV sales," they said.
Two-wheelers and tractors
"In case of two-wheelers, we expect single-digit growth led by higher scooter sales and recent new launches. despatches. However, in case of tractors we expect the double-digit YoY growth trend to continue, which is because of improved demand and the low base of last year," Dadwal and Sarin said.
Maruti Suzuki India Limited (MSIL), the country's largest car maker, is likely to post 10.4 percent growth in domestic sales at 1,21,1887 units in July 2016 from 1,10,405 cars sold in July 2015. Exports are likely to come in at 12,143 units, up 7.4 percent from 11,306 cars exported in July 2015.
"Expect sales to bounce back sharply on MoM basis as the company advanced maintenance work a month earlier," the analysts said.
The company is expected to post 21 percent growth in car sales at 10,585 units in July this year as compared to 8,748 units sold last July.
The Pune-based company's July motorcycle numbers are likely to come at 2,96,555 units, up 5 percent from 2,82,433 units sold in July last year, though three-wheeler sales would post a 15 percent fall at 40,628 units. "Motorcycle sales expected to grow 2% on the back of launch of Avenger and V models. Exports likely to post Africa and Latin America," the analysts said.
TVS Motor Co
The company's two-wheeler sales are expected to grow 12.1 percent to 2,33,239 units on a year-on-year basis from 2,08,044 units sold last July.
Sales are estimated at 5,16,922 units, up 6 percent from 4,87,580 vehicles sold last July. "Scooter sales expected to do well on the back of recent new launches, thereby driving overall YoY sales growth. Expect motorcycle sales to post single- digit growth YoY," the analysts said.
Commercial vehicle sales
Ashok Leyland and Tata Motors are expected to post 10 percent and 7 percent growth, respectively, in the medium heavy commercial vehicle (MHCV) segment. The large commercial vehicle (LCV) segment also grew in the reverse direction for the two commercial vehicle makers, according to Nirmal Bang analysts.
Unlisted companies in the Indian automobile market include Renault, Honda, Hyundai, Toyota Kirloslar, Mercedez and BMW.