World Population Day: India to become most-populated country by Nov 2023, says UN report

A report by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, has sent shockwaves projecting India as the most populated country surpassing China by November 2023, with the overall global population reaching eight billion.

The report, World Population Prospects 2022 released by the ECOSOC on the World Population Day (July 11) said the latest projections by suggest that the world's population could grow to around 8.5 billion in 2030 and 9.7 billion in 2050 and reach a peak of around 10.4 billion people by the 2080s. It was expected to remain at this level until 2100.

"This year's World Population Day (July 11) falls during a milestone year, when we anticipate the birth of the Earth's eight billionth inhabitant. This is an occasion to celebrate our diversity, recognise our common humanity, and marvel at advancements in health that have extended lifespans and dramatically reduced maternal and child mortality rates," UN Secretary-General António Guterres said.

Released on the occasion, the UN report said India will surpass China as the world's most populous country in 2023 and the world's two most populous regions were Eastern and South-Eastern Asia, with 2.3 billion people, representing 29 per cent of the global population, and Central and Southern Asia, with 2.1 billion, representing 26 per cent of the total world population.

Currently, India's population stands at 1.412 billion in 2022, compared to China's 1.426 billion both together account for the largest populations in these regions.

By 2050, more than half of the projected increase in global population will be concentrated in just eight countries of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines and Tanzania.

"Disparate population growth rates among the world's largest countries will change their ranking by size: for example, India is projected to surpass China as the world's most populous country in 2023," the report stated.

After surpassing China by November 2023, India is projected to have a population of 1.668 billion in 2050, way ahead of China's 1.317 billion people by 2050. The consequent immigration is estimated to rise further, it noted.

Meanwhile, global life expectancy at birth reached 72.8 years in 2019, an improvement of almost 9 years since 1990 with reductions in mortality. It may reach an average global longevity of around 77.2 years in 2050, the report said.