In the dynamic and often unforgiving arena of international relations, the wisdom that "no one can adopt an Eklaa Chalo policy" has never rung truer. As India stands at a critical crossroads in 2025, the world is watching its next moves with keen interest. A decade of high-profile summits, record investments, and a celebrated rise in global stature has brought both accolades and scrutiny. Yet, a moment of crisis when India was compelled into a ceasefire by a third party and found itself diplomatically isolated has forced a national reckoning. The episode has revealed the limits of transactional alliances and the enduring necessity for humility, trust, and institutional depth in foreign policy. India's experience is a lesson not only for itself but for all nations navigating the complexities of a multipolar, rapidly shifting world.
The Evolution of Indian Diplomacy: From Non-Alignment to Multi-Alignment
India's foreign policy journey is rooted in the legacy of non-alignment, a doctrine that championed strategic independence and global justice. As the world transitioned from Cold War bipolarity to today's multipolarity, India's approach evolved into multi-alignment balancing relations with the US, Russia, China, and emerging powers across the Global South.
Between 2014 and 2025, India's diplomatic reach expanded dramatically. The Ministry of External Affairs reports over 500 high-level visits to 123 countries, with overseas development assistance (ODA) rising by 40% since 2020. The G20 Summit in Delhi, the International Solar Alliance, and the Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure showcased India's convening power. According to Dr. Amrita Narlikar, President of the German Institute for Global and Area Studies, "India's voice on climate, technology, and South-South cooperation is more influential and distinctive than ever before." Yet, as Ambassador Shivshankar Menon cautioned in 2024, "The true test of diplomacy is not the number of summits, but the reliability of support in moments of strategic necessity."
The Ceasefire: A Moment of Reckoning
The events of early 2025, when India was pressured into a ceasefire by a third party widely seen as the United States served as a sobering inflection point. The US, despite being hailed as a "best friend," subsequently imposed punitive trade restrictions and delayed technology transfers. Reuters data shows India's exports to the US fell by 12% in Q2 2025, with FDI commitments from American firms dropping by $8 billion.
Perhaps more disquieting was the silence of other partners. The UAE, recipient of a $5 billion Indian currency swap in 2023, offered only a perfunctory statement. France, which had awarded the Légion d'honneur to India's Prime Minister, abstained at the UN. Russia, a time-tested friend, maintained neutrality. As Dr. Richard Haass, President Emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations, observes, "In a transactional world, solidarity is seldom unconditional. The true test of partnership is not in ceremonies, but in moments of adversity."
Comparative Lessons from Other Powers
India's experience is not unique. Brazil, after its 2016 political crisis, found its regional influence diminished and had to rebuild trust through Mercosur and BRICS. Indonesia, navigating US-China rivalry, invested in ASEAN and "minilateral" coalitions. South Africa, after the Marikana incident, leveraged African Union solidarity to regain international standing. These cases underscore that even nations with global ambitions must cultivate deep, reciprocal, and institutional partnerships.
Diplomatic Style and the Perception Challenge
A recurring critique of India's recent diplomacy is its perceived over-personalization and emphasis on optics. The External Affairs Ministry's focus on high-visibility visits and awards, while elevating India's profile, sometimes masked a lack of institutional depth. Ambassador Nirupama Rao, in a 2025 panel at the Asia Society, remarked, "The art of diplomacy is not in selfies or stadium crowds, but in the patient cultivation of trust, the humility to listen, and the wisdom to engage beyond the headlines."
A 2025 Pew Global Attitudes Survey revealed a perception gap: while 76% of Indian respondents believed their country enjoyed "strong global partnerships," only 42% of respondents across G20 nations characterized India as a "reliable partner." Dr. Yamini Aiyar, President of the Centre for Policy Research, notes, "India's greatest diplomatic asset has historically been its moral authority as a pluralistic democracy. When domestic narratives appear to contradict these values, it complicates our diplomatic positioning."
Neighbourhood First Under Pressure
India's "Neighbourhood First" policy, once a source of pride, faces acute challenges. The 2025 elections in Bangladesh saw the rise of a government less sympathetic to Delhi. In the Maldives, the "India Out" campaign resulted in the cancellation of $700 million in infrastructure projects. China's Belt and Road Initiative investments in Nepal and Sri Lanka have grown by 25% since 2022, while India's share of regional trade has stagnated at 19%.
A 2025 South Asian Voices Initiative survey found that only 34% of respondents in neighboring countries viewed India as a "reliable partner," down from 52% in 2018. As Akshay Mathur of the Asia Society Policy Institute notes, "India must now engage with new political forces and civil societies, not just incumbents. The era of relying on old friendships is over." Dr. Mallika Shakya of South Asia University adds, "Regional diplomacy requires sensitivity to the sovereignty and agency of smaller neighbors."
The Challenge of Multi-Alignment
India's multi-alignment strategy balancing the US, China, Russia, and the EU faces new headwinds. The return of Donald Trump to the White House in 2025 brought a more transactional approach. The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) notes, "India's expectations of strategic autonomy are increasingly at odds with the realities of great power competition."
Meanwhile, China's assertiveness has grown. SIPRI data shows China's arms exports to South Asia increased by 18% in 2024, and its diplomatic engagement in the Indian Ocean Region has deepened. Canada-India relations soured after the 2024 diplomatic spat, with Indian student visa approvals dropping by 30% and bilateral trade shrinking by $2 billion.
The Limits of Transactionalism
India's economic diplomacy has been robust over $12 billion in aid and credit lines to Africa and South Asia since 2020, and $4 billion in emergency support to Sri Lanka and Maldives. Yet, as Prof. Swaran Singh of JNU observes, "Budgetary allocations alone do not buy loyalty. Execution, follow-through, and genuine partnership matter more."
A 2024 Brookings report found that India's infrastructure projects in Africa face delays in 60% of cases, and only 42% of partner nations cite India as a "preferred development partner." The lesson is clear: relationships built solely on transactional aid or investment are rarely sustainable without shared values and mutual trust.
Public Diplomacy, Soft Power, and the Politics of Perception
Indian media has often amplified the government's diplomatic achievements, sometimes at odds with international coverage. A 2025 Reuters/Ipsos poll found that while 68% of Indians believed India had "the strongest foreign policy in the region," only 29% of respondents in G20 countries agreed.
Soft power remains a vital asset. Initiatives such as International Yoga Day, ICCR scholarships, and the global reach of Bollywood and cricket have enhanced India's image. Yet, as Prof. C. Raja Mohan cautions, "Soft power must be matched by strategic consistency. The world is less interested in domestic spectacle and more in India's reliability as a partner."
Lessons from Global Peers
Brazil's coalition-building in Latin America, Indonesia's ASEAN leadership, and Turkey's mediation in the Middle East offer instructive contrasts. These nations have invested in multilateralism, regional architectures, and Track 2 dialogues to sustain influence beyond moments of crisis. Vietnam's normalization with the US, and South Korea's middle power diplomacy, show how even challenging relationships can be transformed through strategic patience and institutional engagement.
Voices from the Region and Beyond
Regional perspectives offer valuable insights for India's diplomatic recalibration. Dr. Gowher Rizvi, former Foreign Affairs Advisor to the Prime Minister of Bangladesh, suggests that "the most productive regional relationships are those that create space for mutual vulnerability and acknowledgment of interdependence." From Nepal, former Foreign Secretary Madhu Raman Acharya emphasizes that "smaller states seek predictability and respect for their agency, not merely material support." International observers like Ambassador Chas Freeman, former U.S. diplomat, note, "India's greatest diplomatic asset is its civilizational perspective the ability to take the long view while others are consumed by the immediate."
Defending Assertive Diplomacy
Defenders of India's current approach argue that assertive diplomacy has yielded dividends: greater global visibility, increased FDI, and a seat at key forums like the Quad and BRICS. Former Ambassador Gautam Bambawale contends, "Setbacks are inevitable, but India's long-term trajectory is upward. The world respects nations that act with self-confidence." Yet, even supporters acknowledge the need for course correction. As Tanvi Madan of Brookings notes, "India must balance ambition with humility, and optics with substance."
Actionable Roadmap: Elevating Indian Diplomacy
1. Deepen Institutional Engagement
Invest in a professional diplomatic cadre and empower embassies with greater autonomy.
Institutionalize Track 2 and Track 1.5 dialogues with key partners and regional actors.
2. Rebuild Regional Relationships
Launch a "Neighbourhood 2.0" initiative focused on bipartisan engagement, people-to-people ties, and joint development projects.
Address core concerns of neighbors water, migration, and trade through transparent mechanisms.
3. Diversify and Deepen Partnerships
Expand engagement with Africa, Latin America, and Southeast Asia beyond government-to-government ties, including civil society and business networks.
Champion a new South-South Cooperation Charter to institutionalize solidarity among developing nations.
4. Enhance Public Diplomacy and Soft Power
Leverage the Indian diaspora, digital platforms, and regional media to shape global narratives and counter misinformation.
Expand educational, cultural, and technological exchanges, including ICCR scholarships and Digital India partnerships.
5. Strategic Foresight and Crisis Preparedness
Establish a Strategic Foresight Unit within the MEA to anticipate global trends and prepare rapid response teams for diplomatic crises.
Equip leaders and diplomats with scenario planning, data-driven insights, and robust communication strategies.
6. Champion Multilateralism and Global Commons
Take leadership roles in the UN, BRICS, Quad, and other multilateral forums to shape global norms on climate, health, and technology.
Initiate confidence-building measures and dispute resolution mechanisms in South Asia and the Indo-Pacific.
Towards Statesmanship and Strategic Patience
In the words of Ambassador Kishore Mahbubani, "No nation can afford to be an island in a world of shifting tides." India's recent diplomatic setbacks are not irreversible, but they are a clarion call for deeper engagement, humility, and vision. As the late K. Subrahmanyam argued, "Strategic culture is built not in moments of crisis, but in the patient cultivation of trust and understanding."
India's foreign policy must blend the wisdom of its civilizational heritage with the agility demanded by a multipolar world. By investing in regional architectures, championing the global commons, and elevating its public diplomacy, India can help shape a more inclusive and stable international order one in which walking together is not a choice, but a necessity.
As India looks to the next quarter-century, can its leaders and diplomats turn this moment of isolation into an opportunity for genuine renewal restoring trust at home and abroad, and building alliances that will endure the tests of the future?
[Major General Dr Dilawar Singh is an Indian Army veteran who has led the Indian Army's Financial Management, training and research divisions introducing numerous initiatives therein. He is the Senior Vice President of the Global Economist Forum AO ECOSOC, United Nations and The Co President of the Global Development Bank.]
