Over the past two decades (2005–2025), the international community has faced mounting challenges in upholding the principles of international law, United Nations (UN) resolutions, environmental treaties, and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). These frameworks, designed to foster global equity, justice, and sustainability, are increasingly undermined by selective enforcement, geopolitical rivalries, and the prioritization of powerful nations' interests, particularly those of Western countries led by the United States. Allegations of targeted interventions, regime changes, and resource exploitation in smaller, resource-rich nations have raised questions about whether these mechanisms serve universal justice or act as tools for economic and strategic dominance.
Concurrently, failures to meet environmental targets and SDG commitments have disproportionately impacted the Global South, exacerbating inequality and environmental degradation. These trends are analysed through evidence-based data, identified major concerns, that offer a prognosis for the future, and underscore the urgent need for a reformed, rules-based global order to ensure equity and sustainability for all.
1. Trends in Compliance with International Laws, UN Resolutions, and Conventions (2005–2025)
a. Selective Enforcement and Declining Amenability
The past two decades reveal a consistent pattern of selective compliance with international legal frameworks, often reflecting the strategic interests of powerful nations:
UN Security Council (UNSC) Resolutions: The UNSC, dominated by its five permanent members (P5: US, UK, France, Russia, China), has applied resolutions inconsistently. The 2003 Iraq invasion, justified under Resolution 1441 (2002) despite lacking explicit authorization, relied on contested claims of weapons of mass destruction (WMDs), later disproven. In contrast, over 80 US vetoes since 1970 have blocked resolutions critical of Israel, such as those condemning illegal settlements (e.g., Resolution 2334, 2016), undermining the UN Charter's principle of equal sovereignty.
International Criminal Court (ICC) Bias: By 2025, the ICC has prosecuted 31 cases, 28 of which involve African nations, prompting accusations of targeting weaker states. Alleged war crimes by Western powers, such as civilian deaths in Afghanistan (2001–2021, with 46,000 civilian casualties per Brown University estimates) or Iraq (200,000 civilian deaths), have evaded prosecution due to non-membership (e.g., US) or political pressure. This disparity erodes trust in international justice.
Unilateral Sanctions: Sanctions imposed outside UNSC approval, particularly by the US, have targeted nations like Iran (3,600+ sanctions by 2023, reducing oil exports by 50%), Venezuela (930 sanctions, freezing $22 billion in assets), and Syria (GDP contracted 70% since 2011). Criticized by the UN General Assembly (e.g., Resolution 76/161, 2021) as violations of sovereignty, these measures often prioritize regime change over legal norms.
b. Non-Compliance with Environmental Commitments
Global environmental treaties have seen inadequate adherence, particularly by high-income nations:
Paris Agreement Shortfalls: The Emissions Gap Report 2024 projects a 2.6–3.1°C temperature rise by 2100 under current policies, far exceeding the 1.5°C target. Global emissions reached 57.1 gigatons of CO₂-equivalent in 2023, requiring a 42% reduction by 2030. G20 nations, accounting for 80% of emissions, have underperformed on Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). The US, for instance, withdrew from the Paris Agreement (2017–2020) and, at COP29 (2024), opposed enhanced climate finance.
Climate Finance Gaps: Developed nations pledged $100 billion annually by 2020 for climate action in developing countries, but only $83.3 billion was delivered in 2022 (OECD). The COP29 agreement set a $300 billion goal by 2035, deemed insufficient by the Global South against their $1.3 trillion demand. Small Island Developing States (SIDS) face adaptation costs up to 20% of GDP, yet receive minimal support.
Biodiversity Commitments: The Kunming-Montreal Framework (2022) targets 30% ecosystem protection by 2030, but only 17% of terrestrial and 8% of marine areas are currently protected. High-income nations, consuming six times more resources per capita, drive biodiversity loss through extraction (e.g., 80% of global cobalt from Congo).
c. SDG Progress: Stagnation and Inequity
The 2030 Agenda's 169 targets are severely off track, with only 17% on course (Sustainable Development Report 2024):
Poverty and Hunger: SDG 1 (No Poverty) and SDG 2 (Zero Hunger) are regressing, with 590 million people projected to remain in extreme poverty by 2030 and 821 million undernourished. Sub-Saharan Africa, with 14% of the global population, accounts for 29% of extreme poverty.
Debt Distress: External debt in low-income countries tripled since 2008, with 59 nations at high default risk by 2024. Debt servicing consumes 12% of revenues, four times higher than a decade ago, diverting funds from SDGs.
Global South Marginalization: SDG 17 (Partnerships) calls for technology transfers and financing, but only 2% of global clean energy investment reaches Africa, where 600 million lack electricity. Intellectual property barriers limit access to renewable technologies, with only 10% of solar patents available to developing nations.
2. Evidence of Western Domination vs. Rule of Law
a. Regime Changes and Resource Exploitation
Interventions in resource-rich nations, often justified by allegations of human rights abuses or security threats, align with Western economic interests:
Iraq (2003): The US-led invasion, costing $2 trillion and 200,000 civilian lives, was based on unverified WMD claims. Post-invasion, Western firms like ExxonMobil and BP controlled 80% of oil fields by 2010, while Iraq's GDP collapsed and sectarian violence persists.
Libya (2011): NATO's intervention exceeded UNSC Resolution 1973's no-fly zone mandate, toppling Gaddafi. Oil production fell from 1.6 million to 400,000 barrels per day by 2015, with Western firms like TotalEnergies gaining access. Libya remains unstable, with ongoing conflict and human trafficking.
Syria (2011–present): US-backed opposition and sanctions aimed at regime change have coincided with control over northeast oil fields (2.5 billion barrels). Sanctions reduced GDP by 70%, exacerbating a humanitarian crisis with 13 million refugees.
Venezuela (2017–present): US sanctions and recognition of Juan Guaidó targeted 300 billion barrels of oil reserves. The economy contracted 65% (2013–2020), with 7 million emigrating due to shortages and $22 billion in frozen assets.
Afghanistan (2001–2021): Post-9/11 intervention aligned with interest in $1 trillion in rare earth minerals. Western contractors profited, while 90% of Afghans lived below the poverty line by 2021.
b. Economic and Financial Coercion
Sanctions as Leverage: Unilateral sanctions, condemned by the UN (e.g., Resolution 76/161), violate sovereignty. Iran's 40% inflation and Cuba's $4.7 billion annual losses from the US embargo illustrate economic strangulation, hindering SDG progress.
Financial Architecture: The IMF and World Bank, with the US holding 16.5% of IMF voting power, impose austerity on debt-distressed nations. In 2023, 60% of low-income countries faced default risks, prioritizing debt repayment over social investments.
Resource Extraction: High-income nations drive resource demand, with the Global Resources Outlook 2024 noting sixfold higher per capita consumption than low-income nations. African countries, supplying 80% of cobalt and 50% of lithium, face environmental degradation (e.g., Congo's mining pollution) while Western corporations dominate profits.
c. Environmental and SDG Disparities
Climate Inequities: LDCs and SIDS, contributing <1% of emissions, face severe impacts (e.g., 2023 Pacific typhoons cost Vanuatu 50% of GDP). The $4.2 trillion SDG financing gap and $1 trillion climate adaptation needs remain unaddressed.
Technology Barriers: SDG 17's technology transfer goals are stalled by intellectual property restrictions, with only 10% of clean energy patents accessible to developing nations.
Trade Imbalances: High-income nations outsource pollution-intensive production to the Global South, undermining environmental targets while maintaining economic dominance.
3. Deep Analysis: Causes and Implications
a. Root Causes
Structural Power Imbalances: The UNSC's veto power (US: 89 vetoes since 1970) and Western dominance in Bretton Woods institutions (US: 16.5% IMF votes) shield powerful nations from accountability while targeting weaker ones.
Geopolitical Rivalries: US-China trade wars and Russia-West tensions fragment multilateralism. The US's opposition to FFD4 reforms (2025) and Paris Agreement withdrawals reflect national priorities over global commitments.
Weak Enforcement: International law's reliance on state consent limits enforcement. The Paris Agreement's voluntary NDCs and UNEA's non-binding resolutions (e.g., 2022 plastics agreement) lack teeth. The ICC's exclusion of major powers undermines universal justice.
Economic Motives: Resource-rich nations are targeted for strategic commodities (e.g., oil, lithium). Sanctions and interventions secure Western market access, as seen in Iraq and Venezuela.
b. Implications
Eroded Legitimacy: Selective enforcement fuels Global South distrust, spurring alternative frameworks like BRICS's New Development Bank.
Humanitarian Crises: Sanctions and interventions drive poverty and displacement (e.g., Syria's 13 million refugees, Venezuela's 7 million migrants), hindering SDGs.
Environmental Risks: Delayed climate action risks 2.6–3.1°C warming, with 200 million climate refugees by 2050 (UN estimate) and 1 million species facing extinction by 2030.
Inequality Growth: The richest 1% own 32% of global wealth (World Bank, 2023), while 3.6 billion in the Global South live on < $6.85/day, exacerbated by SDG failures.
Geopolitical Fragmentation: Rival blocs threaten multilateralism, risking a bifurcated order with competing norms.
4. Major Concerns
Selective Justice: International law is applied inconsistently, targeting weaker states while shielding powerful ones, eroding UN Charter credibility.
Resource Exploitation: Interventions prioritize Western access to minerals and energy, perpetuating Global South dependency and environmental harm.
Climate Inaction: Inadequate financing and ambition threaten Paris Agreement goals, disproportionately impacting vulnerable nations.
SDG Stagnation: Funding and technology shortfalls stall progress, deepening poverty and inequality in the Global South.
Multilateral Decline: Geopolitical rivalries undermine collective action, risking systemic collapse of global governance.
5. Prognosis for the Future
a. Pessimistic Scenario
Persistent Hegemony: Powerful nations continue selective compliance, using sanctions and interventions to secure resources. International law remains a geopolitical tool.
Climate and SDG Collapse: 2.6–3.1°C warming triggers mass displacement and SDG failure, with 1 billion in poverty by 2030. Global South nations face existential threats.
Fragmented Order: Rival blocs (G7 vs. BRICS) create parallel systems, weakening UN frameworks and global cooperation.
b. Optimistic Scenario
Governance Reform: UNSC veto reform, increased Global South representation in IMF/World Bank, and stronger ICC jurisdiction restore trust. The BBNJ Agreement (2023) models inclusive cooperation.
Climate and SDG Progress: Enhanced NDCs, $1.3 trillion in climate finance, and debt relief enable Paris and SDG targets. Renewables scale up, cutting emissions 42% by 2030.
Multilateral Revival: South-South and North-South partnerships strengthen, fostering equitable norms.
c. Likely Outcome
Incremental reforms (e.g., $300 billion climate finance, partial debt relief) will occur amid ongoing power struggles. Compliance will improve marginally, driven by Global South advocacy, but geopolitical tensions will limit progress. Climate impacts (2°C warming) and SDG gaps will persist, with disparities enduring.
6. Necessity for a Rules-Based Global Community
A reformed global order is critical for humanity's shared future:
Impartial Enforcement: Limiting UNSC vetoes and expanding ICC jurisdiction would ensure accountability. Binding UNEA resolutions could enforce environmental commitments.
Sustainable Resources: Agreements aligned with the Global Resources Outlook 2024 would curb exploitation and promote circular economies.
Climate Justice: Fulfilling $1.3 trillion climate finance and technology transfer pledges would empower LDCs and SIDS.
SDG Acceleration: Reforming financial architecture (e.g., SDR reallocations, debt restructuring) would unlock $4.2 trillion for SDGs.
Inclusive Governance: Amplifying Global South voices and fostering South-South cooperation would balance power dynamics.
Conclusion
The past two decades demonstrate a troubling erosion of compliance with international laws, UN resolutions, environmental treaties, and SDGs, driven by power imbalances and geopolitical rivalries. Evidence of regime changes (Iraq, Libya, Syria, Venezuela), sanctions, and resource exploitation reveals a prioritization of Western interests over universal justice. Environmental failures, with a projected 2.6 - 3.1°C warming, and stalled SDG progress deepen Global South vulnerabilities. Major concerns include selective justice, resource plunder, climate inaction, and multilateral decline. The future depends on reforming global governance, fulfilling financial commitments, and fostering inclusive cooperation. A rules-based global community, grounded in equity and sustainability, is essential to address these challenges and ensure a just, resilient world.
[Major General Dr Dilawar Singh is an Indian Army veteran who has led the Indian Army's Financial Management, training and research divisions introducing numerous initiatives therein. He is the Senior Vice President of the Global Economist Forum AO ECOSOC, United Nations and The Co President of the Global Development Bank.]
