The Israel-Iran conflict has plunged the Middle East into a perilous crisis. Israel's Operation Rising Lion, launched on June 13, unleashed over 200 airstrikes targeting Iran's nuclear facilities at Natanz and Fordow, military bases in Tehran, Shiraz, Tabriz, Isfahan, Kermanshah, and Khorramabad, and energy infrastructure like the Shahran fuel depot and South Pars gas field, killing 406 Iranians (90% civilians, including nine nuclear scientists like Mohammad Mehdi Tehranchi and Fereydoun Abbasi, and six IRGC commanders, including Hossein Salami and Mohammad Bagheri).
Iran retaliated with over 300 ballistic and cruise missiles and dozens of drones, striking Israeli military bases (Nevatim, Hatzerim), airfields, and cities including Tel Aviv, Haifa, Bat Yam, Ramat Gan, Rehovot, and Petah Tikva, killing 24 Israelis (civilians and soldiers) and injuring 390.
Iran's proxies escalated: Yemen's Houthis fired ballistic missiles at Eilat, and Lebanon's Hezbollah launched 150 rockets into northern Israel, killing five.
This direct confrontation, a sharp escalation from decades of proxy warfare, has disrupted the Strait of Hormuz, pushing Brent crude to $85 per barrel (threatening 20% of global oil flows), and intensified suffering in Gaza and Lebanon.
As the world watches, the stakes could not be higher: regional stability, global energy markets, and the specter of nuclear proliferation hang in the balance.
Domestically, Trump navigates a fractured Republican Party. Hawks like Senator Tom Cotton advocate for U.S. strikes on Iran's nuclear sites, while isolationists like Senator Rand Paul warn of a "quagmire." Public opinion, shaped by war fatigue, favors diplomacy: a recent Pew poll shows 62% of Americans oppose direct U.S. military involvement. Globally, the G7 has urged restraint, while Arab states like Saudi Arabia and the UAE, wary of Iran's influence but critical of Israel's aggression, call for a ceasefire. Russia and China, Iran's allies, have condemned Israel and supplied Tehran with drones, complicating U.S. efforts.
The United States, under President Trump, finds itself in a precarious position. Trump has publicly supported Israel's campaign, calling its initial strikes "very successful" and warning Iran to avoid targeting U.S. assets. Yet, he has also pushed for a diplomatic resolution, urging Iran to abandon its nuclear ambitions entirely in exchange for peace. His rhetoric oscillates between bellicose threats "Iran must make a deal, before there is nothing left" and calls for a "real end" to the conflict, not merely a ceasefire. This duality reflects the tightrope Trump walks: balancing unwavering support for Israel with a deep aversion to entangling the U.S. in another Middle East war.
President Donald Trump, known for his bold and unconventional approach to foreign policy, has the opportunity to launch a major initiative to de-escalate and control the escalating Israel-Iran conflict, which, as of June 17, 2025, has reached a critical juncture with Israel's Operation Rising Lion and Iran's retaliatory missile strikes. The conflict's potential to destabilize the Middle East, spike global energy prices, and draw the U.S. into a broader war demands a strategic intervention.
Trump's unique position his strong alliance with Israel, his "maximum pressure" strategy on Iran, and his appeal as a dealmaker gives him leverage to propose a major initiative. His administration's reluctance to engage militarily, coupled with domestic pressure to avoid another Middle East war (62% of Americans oppose direct involvement, per Pew polls), aligns with a diplomatic push.
The United States, under President Donald Trump, faces a pivotal moment to avert a regional war. return from G7 and his statement...
On June 17, 2025, President Donald Trump abruptly left the G7 summit in Italy, returning to Washington to address the escalating Israel-Iran conflict. In a statement from the White House, Trump declared, "Israel's strikes were very successful, but Iran must make a deal before there's nothing left. We're ready to help both sides end this fast—no more endless wars." His remarks, balancing support for Israel's Operation Rising Lion with a call for diplomacy, signal his intent to launch a bold initiative, potentially the Middle East Peace Compact, to halt the violence and prevent a broader regional war.
As a deal making solution, a bold, transformative Middle East Peace Compact (MEPC), integrating Israel and Iran's expectations, enlisting Russia and China, and projecting outcomes across the spectrum from short-term to long-term horizons, offering a rigorous path to peace, is proposed herein.
The Conflict's Stakes: A Regional Powder Keg
Israel's strikes aim to dismantle Iran's nuclear program, which Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu calls an "existential threat," citing its 400kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium (near weapons-grade, per IAEA). Iran denies pursuing a bomb but defends its civilian nuclear rights. The conflict's toll is staggering: 406 dead in Iran, 14 in Israel, 1,277 hospitalized in Iran, and thousands displaced in Gaza due to intensified Israeli operations. Hezbollah's rocket barrages from Lebanon and Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping exacerbate regional instability. The economic fallout oil price spikes and Hormuz disruptions threatens global markets, while the specter of Iran's nuclear breakout looms large.
Israel's Expectations: Israel demands the complete elimination of Iran's nuclear program (zero enrichment, dismantlement of Natanz and Fordow), curbs on its ballistic missile program, and neutralization of proxies like Hezbollah and the Houthis. It seeks U.S. military support, including GBU-57 "bunker buster" bombs for Fordow, and diplomatic cover against UN and global criticism. Long-term, Israel aims to maintain military supremacy and expand Arab normalization via the Abraham Accords.
Iran's Expectations: Iran insists on its right to limited enrichment (3.67%-5%) for civilian purposes, full sanctions relief to revive its economy (down 30% in oil exports since 2024), and guarantees against Israeli or U.S. attacks. It seeks to preserve its "Axis of Resistance" (Hezbollah, Hamas, Houthis) as a regional deterrent. Long-term, Iran aspires to regional power status, bolstered by alliances with Russia and China.
The U.S. Role: Navigating a Tightrope
Trump has reaffirmed "ironclad" support for Israel, deploying the USS Nimitz Carrier Strike Group and additional THAAD and Patriot systems to intercept Iran's missiles. He vetoed Israel's plan to assassinate Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, fearing a regional war, and has pushed for diplomacy despite the collapse of U.S.-Iran talks in Oman after a failed 60-day ultimatum (expired April 2025). Domestically, Trump faces a divided GOP: hawks like Senator Tom Cotton urge strikes on Iran's nuclear sites, while isolationists like Senator Rand Paul and Tucker Carlson warn of a "quagmire." A June 2025 Pew poll shows 62% of Americans favor diplomacy over war. Globally, the G7 calls for restraint, but Russia and China's support for Iran supplying Shahed drones and diplomatic cover complicates U.S. efforts. Arab states like Saudi Arabia and the UAE, wary of Iran but critical of Israel's aggression, urge a ceasefire.
The Middle East Peace Compact: A Transformative Vision
Trump's Middle East Peace Compact (MEPC) is a bold initiative to halt the violence, address nuclear and security concerns, stabilize the region, and engage Russia and China as co-guarantors. It leverages Trump's dealmaking prowess, Vice President JD Vance's mediation, and envoy Steve Witkoff's regional expertise to forge a lasting peace.
Immediate Ceasefire and Humanitarian Corridor (Very Short Term)
Trump would propose a 72-hour ceasefire, mediated by Qatar and Turkey, halting Israel's 200+ airstrikes and Iran's 300+ missile and drone attacks, including proxy actions by Hezbollah and Houthis. The U.S. would deploy additional Patriot systems to Israel and offer Iran temporary sanctions relief on humanitarian goods (medicine, food for 1,277 hospitalized). A UN-monitored corridor would deliver $100 million in aid to Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran's affected cities (Tehran, Isfahan), easing civilian suffering and earning Arab League support. Trump would brand this a "peace pause," rallying his base and G7 allies.
Nuclear Accord and Security Framework (Short to Mid Term)
The MEPC would revive a nuclear deal, allowing Iran 3.67% enrichment under IAEA oversight, with phased sanctions relief (e.g., $10 billion in frozen assets) tied to dismantling 60% uranium stockpiles. Israel would receive a U.S. mutual defense pact, 12 additional F-35 jets, and real-time intelligence-sharing. A regional arms control agreement would cap Iran's ballistic missile range at 2,000km and limit proxy funding, with Israel freezing West Bank settlements to appease Arab states. A U.S.-led verification task force, including Russian and Chinese inspectors, would monitor compliance, addressing Israel's concerns about Fordow.
Regional Stabilization Summit (Mid to Long Term)
A Doha Summit would convene Saudi Arabia, UAE, Turkey, Israel, Iran, Russia, and China to address Gaza's $20 billion reconstruction, Lebanon's stabilization (post-Hezbollah attacks), and Yemen's Houthi conflict. A U.S.-led maritime coalition, with Russian and Chinese frigates, would secure the Strait of Hormuz, stabilizing Brent crude at $80-$85. A Middle East Economic Forum, funded by $50 billion from Gulf states and China's Belt and Road, would integrate Iran into trade networks, reducing its reliance on Russia and China.
Engaging Russia and China
Russia, supplying Iran's Shahed drones, and China, reliant on Gulf oil for its $400 billion trade network, have stakes in stability. Trump could offer them MEPC co-guarantor roles, granting diplomatic prestige and seats at the Doha Summit. Private incentives easing Ukraine sanctions for Russia (e.g., on energy exports) or tariff reductions for China (e.g., on electronics) could secure their pressure on Iran to comply. This risks GOP backlash, as Senators like Lindsey Graham may decry engaging rivals, but could neutralize their spoiler roles.
Global and Domestic Messaging
Trump would pitch the MEPC as a "historic triumph" that avoids war, secures Israel, and tames Iran, appealing to his "America First" base. He would align with G7 and UN calls for peace, leveraging Arab League support to pressure both parties. Economic benefits oil price stabilization and Gulf-funded projects creating 10,000 U.S. jobs would counter hawks like Cotton and progressives fearing entanglement.
Prognosis and Challenges
Very Short Term (Next 2-3 Days, by June 20, 2025)
Trump could announce the MEPC on June 18, leveraging his G7 departure to signal urgency, with Vance in Doha for talks. Israel may resist pausing its 200+ strikes, fearing Iran's 400kg uranium stockpile, while Iran's 270+ missiles and proxy attacks (Hezbollah's 150 rockets, Houthi missiles) signal defiance. U.S. assurances Patriot systems for Israel, $50 million in humanitarian relief for Iran might secure a ceasefire. Hormuz disruptions could push Brent to $90, but U.S.-led patrols with USS Nimitz may mitigate risks. Russia and China may hesitate without firm incentives. GOP hawks may decry Iran concessions, while protests in U.S. cities grow.
Short Term (Next Few Weeks, through mid-July 2025)
A ceasefire could enable nuclear talks in Oman or Qatar. Iran may demand full sanctions relief, while Israel insists on Fordow's destruction, potentially requiring GBU-57 bombs. Trump must restrain Netanyahu with F-35s and coax Iran with $10 billion in assets. Hezbollah's rockets or Houthi strikes on Saudi oil facilities could derail progress. Russia and China's buy-in hinges on U.S. concessions, risking GOP ire. Oil volatility and U.S. protests (if casualties exceed 1,000) could intensify, with 1,277 Iranian hospitalizations fueling global outrage.
Mid Term (Next Few Months, through September 2025)
The MEPC could yield a nuclear accord by fall, capping Iran's enrichment at 3.67% and releasing $10 billion in assets. Israel's defense pact and arms control would address its fears, though hardliners may resist settlement freezes. The Doha Summit could secure $5 billion for Gaza and Lebanon, but Iran's proxies remain volatile. Russia and China's participation could ensure Iran's compliance but spark U.S. criticism from figures like Tucker Carlson. A misstep e.g., Iran targeting U.S. bases in Iraq (host to 2,500 troops) could force military action. Oil prices could stabilize at $80-$85 if Hormuz is secured.
Long Term (Beyond September 2025)
A successful MEPC could delay Iran's nuclear breakout to 2030 (per IAEA), enabling Israel's integration with Saudi Arabia and UAE via Abraham Accords 2.0. Iran's economic recovery, fueled by $50 billion in trade, could weaken its Russia-China axis. Russia and China's co-guarantor roles would enhance global stability but dilute U.S. influence, a trade-off Trump must navigate. Failure risks Iran going nuclear by 2026, triggering a Saudi-Turkey arms race and Israeli escalation in Gaza (1.2 million displaced) and Lebanon. Trump's legacy as a peacemaker hinges on sustaining the MEPC against these headwinds.
Challenges and Risks
Mistrust: Israel's fear of Iran's nuclear progress and Iran's defiance post-406 deaths could stall talks.
Proxies: Hezbollah's 150 rockets, Houthi missiles, or Hamas attacks could target U.S. or Gulf interests.
Russia and China: Their cooperation is uncertain; GOP opposition to concessions could limit Trump's flexibility.
Domestic Divisions: Hawks like Cotton and progressives may accuse Trump of appeasement or entanglement.
Economic Fallout: Hormuz disruptions could push oil to $100, straining economies (U.S. inflation at 3.2%).
A Call for Transformative Leadership
The Israel-Iran conflict, with 406 dead in Iran, 14 in Israel, and thousands displaced, is a test of humanity's resolve. Trump's Middle East Peace Compact offers a rigorous, visionary path to peace, balancing Israel's security, Iran's sovereignty, and regional stability. Engaging Russia and China, though contentious, could forge a global coalition to end this crisis. The stakes nuclear risks, economic turmoil, and human suffering demand action. Trump must transcend bravado, embracing statecraft to cement a legacy as the leader who quelled a region's deepest divides. The world awaits peace over chaos.
[Major General Dr Dilawar Singh is an Indian Army veteran who has led the Indian Army's Financial Management, training and research divisions introducing numerous initiatives therein. He is the Senior Vice President of the Global Economist Forum AO ECOSOC, United Nations and The Co President of the Global Development Bank.]
