[Representational Image]Reuters file

Private weather agency Skymet said on Wednesday the country will get normal rainfall this year. 

The agency has forecast monsoon rainfall at 102 percent, in contrast to the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), which has downgraded its forecast for monsoon rainfall this year to 88 per cent from 93 per cent earlier. 

The private agency has said El Nino conditions are unlikely to lead to drought in the country. 

"If the El Nino continues from the last year, then the probability of a drought in the successive year is actually low and you can go back to as far as 1880, it doesn't really happen - that is statistically," Jatin Singh, founder and CEO, Skymet Weather Services told NDTV Profit.

El Nino conditions could lead to below-normal monsoon rainfall, leading to a decline in agricultural output and consequently, a rise in food inflation.

Data shows 10 out of 13 droughts that have occurred since 1950 have had an El Nino connection. The occurrence of El Nino in 2009 coincided with the worst drought in four decades in India.

"This is only the third day of the monsoon, it is only the third day of June, there's a lot that's going to happen so we need to hold on to our horses now," Singh said.

"June (will be) slightly sluggish. I think it'll all pan out well after this. It should be the second half of June that should be decent and then July also looks good," he added. 

A US-based meteorological service provider AccuWeather has also forecast that the country will face a "significant" drought situation, as "very active" typhoons over the Pacific are likely to result in weak monsoon rainfall.

AccuWeather links the occurrence of drought to the El Nino phenomenon, a warm phase of changing sea surface temperatures in tropical Pacific, which often results in more number of typhoons and super typhoons than usual, The Economic Times reported.