rainfall monsoon demand rural above normal forecast prediction imd demand consumption gdp
Girls cover themselves from rain in the northern Indian city of Chandigarh August 11, 2007 (Representational image).Reuters file

It seems the rain god is showering its blessings fairly uniformly across India, raising confidence that the June to September (J-S) monsoon rainfall will indeed be above-normal, as predicted by the official weather forecaster, the India Meteorological Department (IMD).

The data for 29 days of June released by the IMD showed that the rainfall deficiency was just 12 percent (137.6 mm, as against the normal rainfall of 155.5 mm).  

On Wednesday, the IMD had predicted that rains will pick momentum and hit parts of northern India, including Delhi. 

"Over the next 2-3 days, monsoon will again spread to parts of northwest India. This include Haryana, Punjab, Delhi and a large part of Rajasthan. The progress of monsoon will be speedy now," Laxman Singh Rathore, Director General of IMD, said, according to a PTI report. 

The Southwest monsoon rains (June-September) are crucial to India for farm output. The country receives three-fourths of the total rainfall during these months and heralds sowing activities in a big way.

"Around 60 percent of the cropped area in India is rain-fed. Given the fact that around 75 percent of rainfall occurs during June September period, the fate of the kharif crops depends on the Southwest monsoon," State Bank of India had said last month in a note, the foreword for which was aptly titled "Sawan ko aane do" by Arundhati Bhattacharya, Chairman, State Bank of India. 

Besides lifting sentiments on the stock exchanges, a good monsoon holds the key to boosting rural demand, especially for FMCG and automobile products. IT also holds the key to improving farm output and keeping inflation under control.

"Demand conditions are likely to improve going forward; consumer confidence is seen as rising on improving expectations of employment and spending, with rural demand aided by a stronger monsoon," the Reserve Bank of India had said after its second bi-monthly monetary policy review meeting held on June 7.

India suffered two successive droughts in the past two years, crippling farm output and having an adverse impact on the industrial sector as well. 

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