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  • The Indian rupee is likely to end with a depreciation of almost 50 percent in value to the US dollar on March 31, 2016 over a five-year period. Picture: Tourists walk past a currency exchange shop at a shopping arcade in New Delhi Aug. 20, 2013.Reuters file
  • The Indian currency's different denominations seen in this picture illustration taken in Mumbai April 30, 2012.Reuters file

The Indian rupee is likely to end the current financial year with a depreciation of almost 50 percent against the US dollar over a five-year period. The currency closed at 44.54 to the greenback at the end of financial year 2010-11, translating into a fall of 48.67 percent compared to 66.22, the value in the afternoon of March 31, the last day of financial year 2015-16.

The currency closed at 66.38 to the US dollar on March 30, 2016.

If one were to compare the fall over the 12-month period ended March 2016, the decline is about 6.27 percent, based on the closing value of 62.31 on March 31, 2015.

The rupee closed at a new 30-month low of 68.61 on Feb. 22 this year on renewed selling of Indian equities by foreign institutional investors (FIIs), apart from higher demand for the US dollar from banks and importers.

The all-time low of the Indian currency is 68.85, reached August 28, 2013 when the Congress-led UPA government was in power.

Information gleaned from a regulatory filing by private sector lender ICICI Bank on July 24, 2015 with the US Securities and Exchange Commission reveals that the currency has been consistently depreciating in the past five years, after having appreciated by 1 percent in financial year 2010-11.

The fall was the maximum at 14.3 percent in 2011-12 to 50.89 (from 44.54), followed by 7.1 percent in 2012-13, 10.1 percent in 2013-14 and 3.9 percent in 2014-15, according to the filing.

Trend since PM Narendra Modi came to power

Based on the rupee's closing value of 58.59 on May 26, 2014, the day the present BJP-led NDA government of Narendra Modi was sworn-in, the rupee is likely to end with a depreciation of about 13 percent. 

FII investments in Indian equities

In the current financial year, FIIs have been net sellers of Indian equities in eight out of 12 months. They are likely to end the current month as net buyers, and their net purchases as of March 30 were worth Rs 20,144 crore. They were also net buyers in October, July and April last year.

Sensex to post loss

The S&P BSE Sensex too is poised to end the current financial year on a negative note. The benchmark index was trading at 25,255 at about 2.55 p.m. On March 31, 2015, the Sensex had closed at 27,957. 

Foreign exchange reserves at historic high

India's foreign exchange reserves surged for the third straight week to an all-time high of $355.94 billion in the week ended March 18, 2016, according to Reserve Bank of India statistics.  The previous all-time high was $355.46 billion in the week ended June 14, 2015.

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