Global crude oil will run out 90 years before replacement technologies are ready at the current pace of research and development, according to a new study from University of California, Davis.

"Our results suggest it will take a long time before renewable replacement fuels can be self-sustaining, at least from a market perspective," said Debbie Niemeier, professor of civil and environmental engineering at UC, Davis, who also authored the study.

Two key elements of the new theory are market capitalizations (based on stock share prices) and dividends of publicly-owned oil companies and alternative-energy companies. Other analysts have previously used similar equations to predict events in finance, politics and sports, the study said.

Previous estimates, according to the researchers, have pegged 2040 as the timeframe when alternatives could begin to viably replace oil.

However, researchers suggest that some previous studies could be "overly optimistic about the diffusion of new technologies" and, coupled with new extraction techniques and crude supplies; it might take longer for new technologies to compete at least in the markets.

"Sophisticated investors tend to put considerable effort into collecting, processing and understanding information relevant to the future cash flows paid by securities," said Nataliya Malyshkina, UC Davis postdoctoral researcher.

As a result, market forecasts of future events, representing consensus predictions of a large number of investors, tend to be relatively accurate, the study said.

The study also said these findings are meant to send a warning that current renewable-fuel targets are not ambitious enough to prevent harm to society, economic development and natural ecosystems.

"We need stronger policy impetus to push the development of these alternative replacement technologies along," Malyshkina said.

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