U.S. consumers plan to spend an average of $688.87 on holiday-related shopping this year, a smidgen above the $681.83 they forked over last year, according to a survey by the National Retail Federation (NRF).

“As in years past, most holiday gift-givers will spend the largest portion of their budget buying gifts for family ($393.55) and friends ($71.45), though they’ll still carve out room in their budget for small tokens of appreciation for both co-workers ($18.26) and others ($34.82),” NRF said.

Total spending on gifts ($518.08) is expected to rise 2.1 percent from last year, which is in line with NRF’s 2010 holiday forecast.

“Consumers will still shop with the economy in the back of their minds, but we’re starting to see shoppers take baby steps toward a new normal,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay.
“As Americans open up their wallets for more discretionary gifts like jewelry or take advantage of sales to buy for themselves, retailers will begin to truly believe that the worst may be behind them.”

The survey also revealed that 61.7 percent of U.S. shoppers say the economy will impact their spending, down from last year’s 65.3 percent. Many shoppers say they will compensate by spending less (81.5 percent), comparison shopping online (30.9 percent) or with newspapers and circulars (28.1 percent), shopping for sales (54.1 percent) or using more coupons (40.6 percent).

When survey respondents were asked which one factor will be most important when shopping this holiday season, the majority of shoppers said that sales or price discounts (41.8 percent) or everyday low prices (12.7 percent) were most important.

“Price is paramount during any recession, but when the economy begins to recover other factors take on greater importance,” said Phil Rist, executive vice president, strategic initiatives at BIGresearch. “When shoppers consider other factors like customer service and quality in buying decisions, retailers have the ability to highlight a variety of other features to help their company stand out from the competition.”

NRF continues to expect holiday sales to rise 2.3 percent to $447.1 billion.

Writing in the financial blog 24/7 Wall St., Douglas McIntrye was less than impressed by the NRF's forecasts/

“The 1 percent improvement [in consumer holiday spending] is not likely to save the sector from another difficult year of low margins, losses, and some amount of layoffs at the end of the holidays,” he said.

Indeed, McIntrye pointed out that average expenditures were more $750 per shopper in 2007 at the onset of the recession.

“The NRF may paint the news as moderately good, but it is not,” he added.

“Though Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN) and the online businesses of firms like Walmart (NYSE: WMT) have benefited from the boon in Internet shopping, most retailers continue to rely on store sales for the great majority of their revenue. Each item bought online is a chance lost for a store-based sale.”

McIntyre further notes that shoppers are also going to be unusually aggressive this year as they look for discounts.
“That will bring margins down, but it will also make inventory control difficult,” he stated.

“Retailers will have to outguess shoppers about which items they will buy in large numbers if discounted. The inventories of those items, are in turn more likely to be depleted. Other items which retailers cannot afford to discount or choose not to, could still have large inventories at the end of the season.”

All told, McIntyre comments that the numbers involved are “depressing and shows just how little consumer confidence has rebounded since the depth of the economic catastrophe.”

To contact the editor, e-mail: