The Grain Report -FUTURE THOUGHTS

By Tim Hannagan | June 15, 2012 10:46 PM IST

FUTURE  THOUGHTS......................... Thursday weekly export sales report showed old and new crop year bean sales at 1 million metric tons with China in for 740 t.m.t. of the total. No surprise here as China's business was reported daily confirming the sales prior of the report. But it does confirm a  continued aggressive buying pace by China for old and new crop your delivery. China's old crop your purchase was 261 t.m.t. and new crop year 470 t.m.t.. Prior to this week China was more active in the old crop year business to be delivered before September 1, as they filled the hole that was left from the drought in Argentina and Brazil, the world's number three and two biggest bean producer exporter's. But with November new crop year futures $.90 under July old crop year futures and the new marketing year only 75 days away, we may see more exports for new crop year now. This would lead to even bigger cuts ahead for our 2012- 13 ending stocks, already dangerously low. Corn export sales suggest much of the same. Old crop your sales were 92 t.m.t. a marketing year low and new crop year 77 t.m.t.. Were seeing the old crop year high prices just over 6.00 versus new crop your December at just over 5.00  too expensive leaving demand at hand to mouth as needed. With a record crop expected importers appeared to be waiting for even lower new crop your prices before loading up. Most market talk has China filling their corn needs starting September 1. Putting aside any near-term weather rallies. Look for the harvest corn lows to occur early in the harvest as demand will strengthen prices into the last half of harvest. Reason, demand for cash corn purchases  will explode as importers like China, feeders, users and ethanol producers will buying all they can at the low value knowing that planting intentions for the next season will reverse this year with talk of 3 to 5 million  less acres planted of corn and more beans leaving corn consumers fearing 2013 will have them paying two dollars or more per bushel. This years harvest low prices  will hold until 2014. Okay, let's bring it back to present. It's all about weather to start the week. All indications are the Midwest will see measurable rain in the western corn belt of 1 to 3 inches 70% coverage and Eastern grain belt .50 to 1.0  over 60% coverage. The rain is for Saturday into Tuesday and then a lighter event Thursday and Friday, before a return dry again  from 24th to June 30. If their going to further push us lower on the rain event, December corn could push 5.00 with worst-case scenario 4.88. November beans could see 12.95 with worst-case scenario 12.75. What ever the low is to start the week it should hold as low into the June 29 acreage report as shorts will buy out and speculators will buy long on the dry forecast and fear of a bullish acreage report. Technicals read like this. December corns support 5.08, 5.00 then 4.88. Resistance 5.30, 5.40. November beans support 12.95, 12.70. Resistance 13.20, 13.50. September wheat support 6.28, 6.04 resistance 6.60.

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