EUR/USD dropped to as low as 1.2641 last week and formed a short term bottom there, above 1.2625 low, and recovered. Initial bias is mildly on the upside this week for recovery to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 1.2844) and above. But strong resistance should be seen below 1.2994 to limit upside and bring fall resumption. Sustained break of 1.2625 will confirm resumption of whole decline from 1.4939 and should target 61.8% projection of 1.4246 to 1.2625 from 1.3486 at 1.2484 next.
In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4939 is treated as a falling leg inside the consolidation pattern that started at 1.6039 (2008 high) and current development suggests that it's not finished yet. Break of 1.2625 would likely pave the way to 1.1875 and below as the consolidation extends. Meanwhile, break of 1.3486 resistance should now indicate that the fall from 1.4939 is finished and will turn near term outlook bullish for stronger rebound
In the long term picture, EUR/USD turned into a long term consolidation pattern since reaching 1.6039 in 2008. Such consolidation is still in progress and we'd expect range trading to continue for some time between 1.1639 and 1.6039. The range sounds a bit uselessly large but yes, it's that large. For long term traders, anywhere below 76.4% retracement of 1.1639 to 1.6039 at 1.2677 could be treated as a buy zone while above 23.6% retracement at 1.5001 is a sell zone, until there is clear indication of breakout.
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