Fundamental Oil Report (2012-05-04)
|News||Would crude reach $100 after it breached $102?|
|Analysis||Crude oil declined sharply yesterday after fears covered financial markets whether in Europe or U.S. especially after ECB’s president affirmed on the uncertain outlook for the euro. Also, global efforts to push crude prices to below $100 start to affect the commodity.
Crude opened today’s session at $102.53 and moved to reach a high of $102.69 and it dropped to reach so far a low of $101.61, where it is currently trading negatively around $101.68 a barrel.
After crude enjoyed a very high price these days despite all negative factors, it returned to decline affected by pessimism that overshadowed Europe in particular, and the United States ahead of today’s key jobs report which could show the weakness of the recovery pace in the world’s biggest economy.
In fact, this sharp decline that occurred to crude was not a surprise, according to what we have said before these higher oil prices are without a clue but supported only by good companies’ earnings. And now, after negative signs came out and confirmed on the weakness of the current recovery pace in the global economy, nothing was strong enough to support crude and prevent it from collapsing.
Yesterday, the ECB’s president Mario Draghi confirmed on the negative signs that appeared lately by saying the Euro’s outlook is clearly uncertain, and despite that, the ECB did nothing to support growth in its meeting unlike the expectations that referred to a possible move by the bank to contain the crisis and prevent it from spreading.
Draghi’s comments has helped the Euro to erase most of early losses, but it did not help crude which is strongly related to the growth, and the fact that the bank sees more negative signs at the current time and is not that optimistic about the future has trigged fears to cover the financial markets.
Before talking about the U.S. key jobs report today, we will mention here other main factor that pushed crude negatively to the downside, which is OPEC’s effort to bring down oil prices as the organization pumped more oil to the market in order to cover any disruption from Iranian oil and provide sufficient oil supply to the market.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is pumping 32.3 million barrels per day, which is 2.3 million bpd more than OPEC's target of 30 million bpd, and this has helped in pulling crude to the downside sharply.
Back to the U.S. which supposed to announce today how many jobs been added to the economy last month, and despite that expectations are pointing to 165 thousands added jobs more than the previous at 120 thousands, but we are not so optimistic ore sure about that especially after the ADP reported a fewer added jobs to the private sector in more than seven months.
Dear reader, let us not prejudge the situation and wait to see how the figure would come, just like all investors that will wait and see how the report will come. And this waiting amid the current uncertainty in financial markets would trigger volatility ahead of the report.
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