Emerging Markets Exposed to West-Feed Inflation Pressures, Face the Severity by 2013

By : Subscribe to Naresh's | March 31, 2012 10:22 AM IST

The outlook for the emerging markets look mixed though there are some common premises which prevail, including low rate of global trade and core inflation. Open small and medium sized economies with sluggish growth are more exposed to the low rate of global trade.

The domestic demand is pretty strong across many regions, including Africa and Asia. It is noticed that inflation rates in many of the emerging markets have dropped, however, core inflation is not that low.

Emerging economies still are at threat from the contagion effect of the West, and it may weaken growth across region. Economies with exposure to European banks' lending may feel the heat in growth rate if the banks withdraw lending.

Apart from this, growth in economies like India and China has already slowed driven by anti-inflationary policy tightening last year. Majority of the emerging economies have already witnessed rate cuts, and interest rate moderation cycle may have ended. Number of countries across Asia has their policy on hold, with prejudice to ease the same if required in near term. 

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By 2013 emerging economies would face domestic inflation pressures provided by the developments in West. The equity and real-estate prices may be influenced by capital inflows, as money would flow towards emerging economies in search of higher yields or better growth opportunities. Oil and commodity prices have a firm floor. The persistent high energy prices will weigh on the global recovery in coming months, which will in turn add to future inflation concerns across the emerging world.

In a fourth meeting of BRIC group held recently in New Delhi, the members of the BRICS group - Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa have decided to pressurise the European countries and US over the global economic imbalances and monetary policies. It is expected that the BRICS countries will put forth the discussions at the summit into practice.

"A divided and disconnected world economy facing many policy challenges, but in which continued low interest rates in the West mean ample global liquidity driving markets. As we move through the year, policy makers will focus increasingly on setting policy to suit domestic needs. This, in turn, will add to challenges, as well as creating investment opportunities," says Standard Chartered.

Whatever premises prevail in the emerging economies, it still holds attention of some of the investors. George Lewis, Head of RBC Wealth Management said in an interview with Reuters that Canada's largest bank wants to more than double its adviser headcount in emerging markets to at least 220 by 2015 as it seeks to expand its business there from C$20 billion ($20 billion) to C$50 billion.  

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