International Business Times
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February 28, 2012 2:03 AM IST

FXEmpire

Economic Events: (GMT)

07:00     EUR        GfK German Consumer Climate                                                6.1                          5.9           

The Gfk German Consumer Climate Index measures the level of consumer confidence in economic activity. The data is compiled from a survey of about 2,000 consumers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of past and future economic conditions.           

08:15     CHF        Employment Level                                                                          4.03M                   4.02M    

The Employment Level measures the number of people employed during the previous quarter. Job creation is an important indicator of consumer spending.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the CHF, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CHF.            

 Tent      CHF       SNB Board Member Jordan Speaks

Swiss National Bank (SNB) Vice Chairman (May 2007 - January 2012) Thomas Jordan is to speak. In January 2010 his title changed from Board Member to Vice Chairman. As a member of the SNB's Governing Board, which sets short term interest rates, he has a major influence over the value of the Swiss franc. Traders watch his speeches closely as they are often used to drop subtle hints regarding future monetary policy and interest rate shifts.                                                     

 11:00    GBP      CBI Distributive Trades Survey                                                 -14                          -22           

The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) Distributive Trades Survey (DTS) measures the health of the retail sector. The reading is compiled from a survey covering 20,000 firms responsible for 40% of employment in retailing. It includes measures of sales activity across the distributive trades. It is a leading indicator of consumer spending. The figure is the difference between the percentage of retailers reporting an increase in sales and those reporting a decrease.   

 Tent      EUR       German CPI (MoM)                                                                    0.5%                      -0.4%    

The German Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

13:30     USD      Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM)                                        0.0%                      2.2%

13:30           USD      Durable Goods Orders (MoM)                                           -0.8%                     3.0%

Durable Goods Orders measures the change in the total value of new orders for long lasting manufactured goods, including transportation items.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.

 15:00    USD      CB Consumer Confidence                                                        63.0                        61.1

Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence measures the level of consumer confidence in economic activity. It is a leading indicator as it can predict consumer spending, which plays a major role in overall economic activity. Higher readings point to higher consumer optimism.

 

Analysis and Recommendations:

The USD/CHF trading at 0.8990 opening the week at 0.8949 and hitting highs mid day of 0.9011. 

USD/CHF Fundamental Analysis February , 2012, Forecast

The USD rose on most major rivals as the euro fell prey to apparent profit-taking in quiet trading Monday, after the Group of 20 nations refused to boost funding for the International Monetary Fund until the euro zone boosts the size of its own firewall.

 Euro investors showed disappointment over the Group of 20 nations' meeting, rising oil prices and trepidation ahead of the European Central Bank's upcoming liquidity boost weighed on sentiment.

Private sector loans in the Eurozone rose much as expected in January, while M3 broad money  supply surprised to the upside, increasing at its fastest annual pace since October, the European Central Bank reported on Monday. Rising 1.1% on the year, loan growth recovered modestly after
a tough December. Elsewhere in the eurozone the January M3 annual growth was reported at 2.5% well above forecast.

ECB Executive Board member Joerg Asmussen estimated on the sidelines of the G20 summit  this weekend that the first three-year LTRO, which injected close to half a trillion euro into the banking system, had had a "positive effect".

The German government expects broad majority backing for the second aid package at today's  vote in parliament, given that the main opposition parties, the center-left SPD and the ecologist Greens, have signaled their support.

In Italy, the February business confidence fell to 91.5 from 92.1 in January, as a result of worsening current orders and a decline in expected export orders. The index maintained a two-year low, ISTAT said. Also on Monday sold 8.75 billion euro ($11.7 billion) of six-month treasury bills at an average yield of 1.202%, the nation's Treasury said Monday, down from near 1.97% in a January auction. Bids exceeded supply 1.36 times

Today's economic releases actual v. forecast

EUR

     

French PPI (MoM) 

0.6%

 

0.3%

 

-0.1%

   

EUR

     

M3 Money Supply (YoY) 

2.5%

 

1.8%

 

1.5%

   

EUR

     

Private Loans (YoY) 

1.1%

 

1.2%

 

1.0%

   

EUR

     

Italian Business Confidence 

91.5

 

92.0

 

92.1

   

Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule

Feb 28  01:30  Japan  Auctions 2Y JGBs

Feb 28  10:10  Italy   BTP/CCTeu auction

Feb 28  10:30  Belgium  Auctions 3 & 6M T-bills

Feb 28  15:30  UK  Details gilt auctions on Mar 06 & Mar 07

Feb 29  10:10  Sweden  Auctions T-bills

Feb 29  10:30  Germany  Eur 4.0bn 2.0% Jan 2022 Bund

Feb 29  15:30  Sweden  Details nominal bond auction on Mar 07

Mar 01  09:30  Spain  Bono auction

Mar 01  09:50  France  OAT auction

Mar 01  10.30  UK  Auctions 4.0% 2022 conventional Gilt

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