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India, Brazil, China currencies seen strengthening - POLL



09 October 2009 @ 6:52 am IST

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It set a new high for the year on Thursday at 29.59 per dollar as the central bank let it strengthen against the basket to 35.95 , giving in to firming pressure from foreign investors buying rouble assets.

But analysts polled said the currency was vulnerable to swings in the price of Russia's oil exports. The rouble "is still fragile, and any sharp oil price drop will weigh heavily," noted Guillaume Tresca of Calyon.

The rouble was forecast at 30.5 per dollar in one month, 31.0 in three months and 30.9 in a year's time.

China's yuan could stay stable "until exports start rising strongly again in year over year terms and deflation fears end," according to Neil Shearing of consultancy Capital Economics in London.

China's central bank has kept the yuan almost flat against the dollar since July 2008, when the global financial crisis began worsening.

It was forecast at 6.83 per dollar in one month, 6.82 in three months and 6.75 in a year's time.

China has repeatedly declared it is in the process of reforming its exchange rate system to allow the yuan to move more flexibly, but that it will not allow moves that could destabilise its economy.

This article is copyrighted by Reuters.

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