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India, Brazil, China currencies seen strengthening - POLL



09 October 2009 @ 6:52 am IST

Brazil's real and India's rupee should hold firm into 2010 as investors look to emerging markets for growth instead of developed economies, a Reuters poll of BRIC nations' currencies showed on Thursday.

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Brazil's currency, the real, is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range and trade at 1.76 per dollar, near current levels, a year from now, according to the median of around 50 forecasts taken for that currency.

The Indian rupee will end the 12-month period at 45.3 per dollar, compared with a little over 46 to the dollar currently, according to the median of around 40 forecasts.

The poll of more than 100 foreign exchange strategists across the BRIC leading emerging markets -- Brazil, Russia, India and China -- as well as the United States and Europe also foresaw a modestly stronger Chinese yuan but a weaker Russian rouble .

Emerging economies, particularly those in Asia and Latin America, have led the way in the recovery from the worst financial and economic crisis among rich nations in 80 years.

"With the exception of Russia, BRICs are showing great resilience through the crisis. Most people buy into the 'BIC recovery'," said Tim Ash at RBS in London.

The BRIC nations have been claiming more clout globally since the crisis, which has weakened the dominant influence of developed economies.

Brazil, Latin America's largest economy, expanded by 1.9 percent in the second quarter compared with the first three months of the year. It has also staged two of the three largest initial public offerings in the world in 2009.

The economic gains have brought inflows of nearly $10 billion through early October and the benchmark Bovespa index has surged almost 70 percent. It is seen ending the year with an estimated 73 percent gain, its strongest annual rally in six years, a recent Reuters poll showed.

Those inflows, in turn, have helped strengthen the real about a third against the dollar over the same period, and the currency received an additional boost last week when the country was selected to host the 2016 Olympic Games.

"Risk aversion has fallen, but it's still higher than normal," said Roberto Padovani, chief economist at West LB Brazil in Sao Paulo, who predicts that the currency's appreciation will be "positive but not exuberant."

Many Brazilian companies are tied to trade in raw materials and the Chinese have been active buyers of commodities there.

This article is copyrighted by Reuters.

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